Aam Aadmi Party convener Arvind Kejriwal is currently at a spiritual retreat in Hoshiarpur, observing ten-day ‘Vipasana’. Earlier also, he has observed ‘Vipasna’ at the same place. The ten-day sojourn is likely to be extended further for a longer time.
Punjab is the “last” bastion for the AAP right now. The party has existential stakes linked with its government in the state. And all is not well. The AAP’s popularity has been at its lowest. It lost ten of the 13 parliamentary seats in last year’s General Election and trailed in 84 assembly segments out of 117, while at that time, the AAP had 92 legislators in the house. Right now, it has 94 after winning some by-elections.
The party’s in-house critic, Amritsar MLA Kunwar Vijay Pratap Singh has gone on record saying that if elections were held today, the AAP will not win even a single seat. His personal grievances apart - that prompted such scathing observation - the party is faced with a strong anti-incumbency. There does not seem to be any proverbial ray of hope as of now. Besides, Punjab does not have a very good record of returning the incumbent governments. It happened only once in 2012.
Having lost its Delhi bastion to the BJP, the AAP is shifting its entire focus on Punjab. Kejriwal, who is now “more” free from political engagements elsewhere than ever, is understood to be planning to spend more time, rather maximum time, in the state only. There is nothing much for him to do in Delhi, neither at the state level nor at the national level. His “national” ambitions have been, at least for the time being, curtailed with loss in Delhi – party’s as well as his personal defeat from the New Delhi assembly segment.
The by-election in Punjab’s Ludhiana West assembly segment, although prompted by the tragic death of sitting AAP MLA Gupreet Gogi, has come as a godsend opportunity for both Kejriwal as well as the AAP. While for Kejriwal, creating a Rajya Sabha vacancy for himself got easier, for the party, retaining the seat will be a more challenging task.
The AAP has fielded Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora from here although the by-elections are yet to be announced. It is understood that Arora will vacate the RS seat for Kejriwal. The AAP has, however, so far, denied that Kejriwal will go to the RS. This may be because the AAP does not want to provide a handle to the opposition that yet another RS seat from Punjab has gone to an outsider from Delhi.
There are already three outsiders Raghav Chadha, Sandeep Pathak, and Vikram Sawhney who were “elected” to the RS on AAP nomination. Kejriwal, if he replaces Arora, will be the fourth one. And AAP will not like the opposition to use this against it during the by-election.
Senior BJP leader and Delhi minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa has already raked up the issue, telling people of Ludhiana that no matter which party they may "make” win, but they must ensure the AAP candidate’s defeat, lest one more RS seat goes to an outsider, meaning Kejriwal.
But in case the AAP is keen to send Kejriwal to RS, it can still ask Arora or any other MP to vacate the seat for him.
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Kejriwal, along with Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, is learnt to be planning to camp in Ludhiana to ensure the victory of the party candidate from here. Ludhiana West may prove to be the most challenging and very tough contest for the ruling party.
In 2022, the party won Ludhiana West by a margin of 7,512 votes. In the 2024 General Elections, the AAP candidate trailed by 22,963 votes from here against the BJP candidate and was about 8,000 votes behind the Congress candidate. The AAP has to double its vote share as compared to the Lok Sabha elections to retain its 2022 share. This right now looks like a tall order.
The AAP is well aware of the challenge. Besides, the Ludhiana West outcome will set the tone for the 2027 elections. Any adverse result here will further demoralise the party’s rank and file, which is yet to recover from the Delhi shock. Although the ruling party always has an edge in a by-election, Ludhiana West will prove to be different.
Chief Minister Mann has, so far, a brilliant record of winning the assembly by-elections, having lost only one of the five, which was fought during the last three years. This was because he took personal interest in every by-election.
Ludhiana West will not be any different, but it will certainly be very difficult. Besides, its impact and implications will be long-term, which the party can ill afford to ignore. That is the reason it is going to battle with all the top guns with no less leaders than Kejriwal and Mann holding the forte personally. This will also mark Kejriwal’s first prolonged sojourn in Punjab.
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