The relationship between India and Bangladesh is indeed characterised by deep-rooted historical, cultural, and economic ties. However, recent events and underlying political dynamics suggest that India may need to reassess its approach towards its eastern neighbour.
India and Bangladesh share a profound connection through history, language, and culture. The partnership between the two countries has often been lauded as a model for bilateral relations, founded on principles of sovereignty, equality, trust, and understanding.
While India’s security concerns are legitimate, an overly narrow focus on stability through support for the current regime risks alienating significant portions of the Bangladeshi population.
This could undermine India’s long-term interests by fostering instability and anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, potentially compromising the very security objectives India aims to protect.
India’s current policy towards Bangladesh, largely centred on security concerns, views Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the ruling Awami League as stabilising allies against perceived threats, such as a Pakistan-backed dispensation. This approach, however, seems increasingly misaligned with the democratic aspirations of the Bangladeshi people, particularly the youth, as highlighted by the recent student-led protests and the violent reprisals that followed.
The influence of conservative forces like Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh has been limited, and the notion that Pakistan can exert substantial influence over Bangladeshi politics is increasingly seen as simplistic. Historical insurgent activities in Bangladesh, which occurred under various political regimes, reflect a complex landscape that isn't confined to a single party or era.
Economic and trade relations
Economically, Bangladesh is India's largest trading partner in the subcontinent, with bilateral trade reaching $13 billion in the financial year 2023-24. Key exports from India to Bangladesh include cotton, petroleum products, and cereals, while Bangladesh's major export to India is readymade garments.
Recent discussions on a potential Free Trade Agreement (FTA) aim to further enhance trade and investment between the two nations.
India has significantly invested in developing Bangladesh’s infrastructure, extending $8 billion in lines of credit since 2016 for projects in road, rail, shipping, and port development. Notable projects include the Akhaura-Agartala cross-border rail link and the Khulna-Mongla Port rail line, which have improved connectivity and reduced travel time between key regions.
Post decline of Hasina government
The potential decline of the Hasina government could disrupt these ties, particularly affecting India's access to the Northeast, currently facilitated by infrastructure projects and transit agreements. A severing of ties with Bangladesh's population, especially if the opposition turns against India, could further complicate relations.
India’s policy towards Bangladesh must balance security concerns with support for democratic processes and aspirations. A more nuanced approach that considers the evolving political landscape and the aspirations of the Bangladeshi people could help sustain the strong bilateral relationship and protect India's long-term strategic interests.
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