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In a development between two of India’s next-door neighbours, tensions are on the rise between the Pakistani government and the Afghan Taliban. A far cry from just a few years back when Pakistan hailed their military victory in August 2021, even though the world watched and worried as the Taliban declared an interim government after taking control. Pakistan also backed the Taliban during the civil war following the exit of Soviet Forces from Afghanistan. 

 

However, in a complete turnover of geopolitics, on December 24, the Pakistani military launched airstrikes in Afghanistan while targeting suspected Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan hideouts. TTP is the outlawed armed group, also known as the Pakistan Taliban, and is widely believed to be ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban. 

Pakistan’s operation targeting their alleged training facility in Afghanistan’s Paktika Province reportedly killed 51 people. Afghanistan’s local media claims that many of those killed were women and children. A few days later, in response, the Ministry of Defence of the Islamic Emirate carried out a series of retaliatory attacks across the Durand Line. The attacks conducted by the Afghan Taliban killed at least 16 Pakistani soldiers. In another recent incident of violence, last week, forces from both countries engaged in clashes in Khost Province, lasting more than three and a half hours. 

 

As the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continues its campaign of terror and claims responsibility for several attacks responsible for inflicting heavy losses on Pakistani forces, the relationships between the two nations continue to spiral down to the point of no return. Last week, Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif, in a stern warning to the Taliban declared that the militant group was a “menace” and must be “crushed,” to ensure the peace and progress of Pakistan. “The Taliban has resurfaced and we cannot progress or move forward without crushing this menace,” he said, in an address to the Special Investment Facilitation Council’s (SIFC) committee in Islamabad. 

 

The escalation over the years 

 

The armed clashes and escalated tensions between the two nations have not been a result of overnight violence or conflict. Over the past few years, the TTP has been relentless in its efforts centred on overthrowing the Pakistani government and establishing an extension of the Islamic Emirate ruled by its narrow and regressive interpretation of Sharia Law. With this objective in mind, the TTP has reportedly conducted more than 1200 attacks over the past few years. The group has specifically intensified its operations since the Taliban took over Afghanistan in August of 2021. 

The violence and escalated tensions along the border have left the Pakistani government scrambling to get any major success in its military operations against the TTP. Many things work against Pakistan, including its crumbling economy, unstable governments, geopolitical constraints and internal issues. 

 

Ever since it was established in 2007; the Pakistan Taliban has been responsible for some of the deadliest attacks in the country, including the 2014 massacre at Peshawar’s Army Public School killing more than 130 children and attracting worldwide condemnation of its activities. 

The outlawed group’s demands now include the imposition of strict Islamic law, and the release of its imprisoned members, apart from the reversal of the merger of tribal areas with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. 

 

TTP’s resurgence has been a severe threat to Pakistan’s security. Moreover, TTP’s ability to operate freely across the border, coupled with the support it receives from the Afghan Taliban has strengthened its position against Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban, in the meanwhile, has condemned Pakistan’s December 24 air strike as a violation of its sovereignty. 

 

Should India be worried? 

 

In a development that scuttles any hopes of de-escalation, on Sunday, the TTP issued a warning to the Pakistani army stating that it will continue targeting its security forces and even go after various commercial enterprises run by the military.  In a declaration of all out war against the Pakistani Army, the TTP not just threatened military institutions, but urged the public to sever ties with military-run enterprises within three months, and warned political parties to stay out of the group’s conflict with security forces. 

 

Given the cycle of violence, escalated tensions and incursions between two of its next-door neighbours, should India be worried? Making its stance clear, India on Monday, said that it “unequivocally” condemned the Pakistani attacks on civilians in Afghanistan. Further using strong words, Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that it was Pakistan’s “old practice to blame the neighbours for its internal failures.” Taliban has ruled Afghanistan since August 2021. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of providing safe havens and other infrastructure for TTP fighters and thus enabling them to carry out cross-border attacks on Pakistan’s military and security personnel. The Afghan Taliban has denied the allegations. 

 

At one point in time, Pakistan was widely believed to patronise the Afghan Taliban, wielding significant influence over the group, allegedly sheltering it with hideouts, diplomatic backing and funding.  When the Afghan Taliban regained control, Pakistan hoped to leverage its equation and historic ties to curb the TTP. However, today in its battle against the TTP, Pakistan finds itself alone.