israel-lebanon-ceasefire-hanging-by-a-thread

While the US, seeing the ceasefire as a display of its diplomatic influence and effectiveness, maintains the ceasefire is “holding” but both Israel and Hezbollah continue firing and accusing each other of the violation

 

Research shows that a ceasefire might be one of the most debatable and ineffective options devised to reduce violence in times of conflict and war.

 

The fragile ceasefire that took effect on November 27, between Israel and Hezbollah, in the wee hours of local time, might be the reason why.

 

Not only was the ceasefire hanging by a delicate thread but, if at all, it continued the 13-month old conflict that goes back to Israel’s war on Gaza.

 

Within a day of the ceasefire coming into effect, Israeli troops inside Lebanon opened fire at vehicles. In the town of Khiam, three journalists were wounded while covering the return of residents.

 

The IDF also imposed a ban on Lebanese returning to their homes in border villages which were declared a “restricted area”.

 

In less than a week, on December 3, nine people were killed and three injured after Israeli strikes hit the southern Lebanese towns of Talousa and Haris. Other deaths from the previous day included a state security member and brought the death toll to 11.

 

What did the ceasefire agreement say?

 

Geopolitical analysts doubted the success of the ceasefire even when or before it came into effect. The thirteen-point ceasefire, brokered by the United States and France, called for the IDF to withdraw from Lebanese territory within sixty days. The ceasefire also called for the Lebanese Armed Forces to deploy into the southern border areas.

 

Although both sides have accused the other of breaching the ceasefire agreement, many argue that it is the Israeli forces that instead of withdrawing advanced deeper into Lebanon.

 

A day after the ceasefire, IDF jets struck what Israel claims were Hezbollah weapons storage facilities. Other targets included villages in the south.

 

In ‘retaliation’, Hezbollah fired rounds at an Israeli army post in southeast Lebanon and called it the “initial warning defensive response” to repeated violations by Israel.

 

The escalation turned to verbal blows with Israeli Defence Minister Katz warning that if the ceasefire broke down Lebanon would be no longer immune from the attacks.

 

“If until now, we have distinguished between Lebanon and Hezbollah, this will no longer hold true if the ceasefire was breached.” 

 

The violence and bloodshed continues

 

Of those accusing Israel of the ceasefire breach is France, apart from human rights agencies and activist groups.

 

On December 1, France accused Israel of breaching the ceasefire as many as 52 times. Several media reports also indicate that the US expressed its disapproval of Israel’s repeated violations, too.

 

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, admitted during an interview to Israel’s Kan radio that both the American and French governments have privately told Israel they believed it was violating the truce agreement.

 

Earlier this week, Netanyahu’s statements during a cabinet meeting also sparked outrage and speculations. “We are currently in a ceasefire, I note, a ceasefire, not the end of the war,” warned the Israeli Prime Minister, while adding that his country hit over 20 targets across Lebanon.

 

Around the same time, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said that Lebanon was pursuing diplomatic efforts to face Israel’s violations and ensure their withdrawal from Lebanese border towns.

 

Why the ceasefire is not nearly enough?  

 

It was on October 1 that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to launch a military invasion in the fourth neighbouring country, Lebanon this time. In an attempt to disarm and dismantle Hezbollah’s attacks, a proxy group backed by Iran which has been fighting in retaliation for Israel's war on Gaza.

 

Two months later Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire, making several editorial pieces in the local media opining that the ceasefire will give Hezbollah a chance to regroup and re-strategise.

 

Those on the other side believe that Israel instead will continue to misuse its freedom of action in Lebanon, provoking Hezbollah to retaliate, ultimately leading to the collapse of the fragile truce.

 

While the effectiveness of the ceasefire itself may be questionable, many argue a ceasefire is not likely to offer solutions, much less the conflict resolution that dates back to Israel’s war on Gaza. The ceasefire deal does not address the war on Gaza.

 

Ceasefire is holding: US

 

Expressing hope, President Joe Biden has said the ceasefire “is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.”

 

The US, which has seen the ceasefire as a display of its diplomatic influence and effectiveness, says the ceasefire is in effect.

 

While addressing a press interaction, US State Secretary Antony Blinken said that Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is “holding” despite the attacks from both sides on each other.

 

“The ceasefire is holding, and we’re using the mechanism that was established when any concerns have arisen about any alleged or purported violations,” he said on the side-lines of the NATO meeting in Brussels.

 

While Blinken upholds the effectiveness of a US-brokered ceasefire, the ground realities paint a slightly different picture.