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For the Aam Aadmi Party supremo Arvind Kejriwal, the Ludhiana West assembly by-election is not merely about his entry to the Rajya Sabha. That he can, if he wants to, in any way by simply seeking resignation of any of the MPs. Nobody would normally decline to do that. In Ludhiana West assembly segment, which goes for by-elections on June 19, the stakes are much higher. This is going to be the last battle in the last bastion the AAP is holding right now. The final result from this assembly segment will set the tone for the assembly elections, which are scheduled to be held one- and-a-half years from now.

 

The AAP has fielded sitting Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora from here. General perception and interpretation about him is that the party wants to create a vacancy for Kejriwal in the Rajya Sabha. After he lost the election from the New Delhi assembly constituency and the party also lost there, the only option left for him to enter the RS is from Punjab. Routine RS elections are due in 2028. It can be possible only after any of the seven AAP RS MPs ‘chooses’ to resign.

 

It is believed that the party had suggested Sandeep Pathak to vacate the seat for Kerjiwal, but he reportedly declined. In order to avoid any bad blood by ‘forcing’ any of the RS members to resign, the party found a smooth way out through the Ludhiana West, in Sanjeev Arora. Although settled in Delhi, he belongs to Ludhiana. He has done his schooling and college from the city. He has a good social circle here and is well connected in the top echelons of the industry. In fact, one of the top most industrial houses of the city is believed to have sponsored him, as he enjoys close family ties with the group promoters.

 

In fielding Arora, it is a win-win situation for both AAP and Arora. If Arora wins, he has been promised a ministerial berth. Unconfirmed reports suggest that he has even been assured of being appointed the Deputy Chief Minister, which seems highly unlikely as there are other aspirants and it can lead to some bad blood. But even if he is appointed a minister, it will be a great elevation for him. Any Member of Parliament, whether from Lok Sabha or the Rajya Sabha, will always prefer to be a minister in the state government anytime.

 

For Arora it is a godsend opportunity, particularly for someone like him, who tumbled down into the politics from the corporate world just three years ago. In politics, people spend their entire life aspiring to be MLAs. Here, he has been an MP with a prospect of becoming a minister within a short span of three years, for whatever reasons though. And he is working hard day and night, knowing well that he is pitched in one of the toughest battles. His challenger, Bharat Bhushan Ashu, is a formidable candidate. Ashu and Arora, at one point of time, enjoyed a good personal equation. They still have a lot of common friends.

 

Also read: Importance of being Tharoor: Friends hate him, foes love him

 

But then there is the other side to the story, which is not as rosy for the AAP as it may wish it to be. The party is in the fourth year of government in Punjab. With a shattered economy, having 4.25 lakh crores of debt, the party is finding it difficult to deliver on the populist promises it had made before coming to power. Although it did fulfill the promise of 300 units of free power to every household, that was three years ago. Public memory is too short as was proved in the General Elections last year, when the AAP won just three of the 13 Lok Sabha seats from Punjab.

 

Fourth year, for any government, no matter which party and no matter how popular its leaders may be, is the worst year as anti-incumbency is at its peak. The AAP lost the parliamentary elections the previous year and Delhi elections early this year. There is a strong anti-incumbency mood prevailing across the state, including the Ludhiana West. That makes the job for the AAP leadership quite challenging.

 

Kejriwal knows it more than anyone else that not only is Ludhiana West a challenging battle, but the last battle to save his last bastion. After losing Delhi, including his own seat, he has not been seen much there. He spends most of the time in Punjab, navigating the turbulent waters that the party is facing, and will keep on facing more and more as the year 2027 draws closer.

 

Victory in Ludhiana West is the only option for the AAP. In the event of an adverse result, the party will find it very difficult to get on track. The Ludhiana West by-election will definitely set the tone for the 2027 elections. That is why not just Kejriwal, his close lieutenants, Manish Sisodia and Satayender Jain, two ace strategists, have also been positioned in the state to redeem the sagging fortunes of the party.

 

Retaining Punjab is literally a ‘do or die’ battle for the AAP. If AAP loses Punjab, the party will face an existential crisis. Unlike Delhi, the party is not very much deep rooted in Punjab. In case of an adverse result, the AAP has strong chances of imploding. More because most of its leaders and legislators have come from the traditional parties, where they will be more than welcome to return.

 

On Friday, when the party candidate Sanjeev Arora filed the nomination papers, he was accompanied by the Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann, Kejriwal himself, former Delhi Chief Minister Atishi and Punjab president Aman Arora, in a grand roadshow. The message was clear that the by-election is a matter of life and death for the party. His critics may attribute his seriousness about the by-election to his Rajya Sabha interest, but it is more serious than that. It concerns the very existence and survival of the party.