ludhiana-west-where-bjp-congress-find-common-cause

It is so rare, rather rarest of the rare, that the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party may find a common cause, at least in the currently politically polarised and surcharged times. The two parties could not stay on the same page even during and after Operation Sindoor.

 

However, in the Ludhiana West assembly segment, the two parties appear to have an “unwritten understanding” against the ruling Aam Aadmi Party. The BJP appears to be trying to return the favour the Congress did to it in Delhi by refusing to align with the Aam Aadmi Party. The AAP lost after 13 years to the BJP and the Congress’ refusal to go along with it is considered to be one of the main reasons.

 

Ludhiana West assembly segment is part of the Ludhiana parliamentary constituency. It is the business and industrial hub of the state. Leading industrial houses of the country like the Airtel, Hero, Oswal and Vardhaman groups, all have their roots in this city. Most of the owners live or have once lived in the Ludhiana West assembly segment. That makes it quite a high profile assembly segment.

 

The by-election was necessitated due to the death of the sitting AAP legislator Gurpreet Singh Gogi in January this year.

 

Traditionally, Ludhiana West has been a Congress stronghold. However, in 2022, the AAP won this constituency, with its candidate, a former Congressman himself who joined the party less than a month before the elections, defeating the Congress stalwart Bharat Bhushan Ashu, a two-time MLA and a former minister. In the 2024 General Elections, the BJP candidate Ravneet Singh Bittu polled over 45,000 votes from here, although he lost the election. The Congress candidate got about 30,000 votes and the AAP got 22,000 votes only in that election from this assembly segment.

 

The parliamentary election results will necessarily not reflect during the by-election, in which the ruling party has a natural edge. As the entire administration and election staff, although under the direct control of the Election Commission of India during the elections, knows it too well that nothing is going to change irrespective of the result. The officials, as a rule, support the ruling party. Moreover, the AAP is known for using every resource at its disposal, including the police and official machinery.

 

In the numerical terms no party has any stakes in this by-election as nothing is going to change. The AAP already has 94 legislators in a house of 117. But what is important is that in case of an adverse result in this by-election, there can be an AAP downslide. The morale of the cadres will go down. It is also the first election since the Delhi assembly elections, which the party lost.

 

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For the Congress also it does not matter anything in numerical terms, but a victory can and certainly will rejuvenate the party. Besides, it will further strengthen the perception that the party is on a comeback trial. That is the reason the Congress is taking it very seriously, making it a matter of “life and death”.

 

The AAP had apparently assumed it to be a cakewalk, like most of the other by-elections it fought. However, once the Congress fielded Bharat Bhushan Ashu, who was jailed on corruption charges twice, the situation changed and the fight turned to be quite serious. The FIR against Ashu has been quashed by the Punjab and Haryana High Court.

 

Not that a defeat would have any impact on the government, but it will definitely have an impact on governance. Losing a by-election at this stage, will be a disastrous proposition for the ruling party. Besides, it can cast a doubt over Arvind Kejriwal’s entry into the Rajya Sabha. The AAP candidate Sanjeev Arora is a sitting RS MP and in case he wins, he has been promised a ministerial berth. After his resignation, Kejriwal is considered to be the natural choice of the party for RS.

 

The AAP’s only hope is that the “anti-AAP” vote gets divided between the Congress and the BJP. But the two opposition parties appear to be playing equally smart. The Congress leaders have been repeatedly avoiding any references to the BJP, in the hope and belief that a large number of BJP voters/supporters might vote for its candidate, Ashu. This seems quite likely. The BJP appears to have reciprocated by delaying the announcement of its candidate. And the party eventually announced a ‘greenhorn’, who does not have any experience in electoral politics.

 

The major say in deciding the BJP candidate in Ludhiana West has been that of the state BJP president Sunil Jakhar and the union minister of State in Railways, Ravneet Singh Bittu. Bittu contested from Ludhiana parliamentary constituency in 2024 and lost to Raja Warring, his one-time close aide, of the Congress. Both Jakhar and Bittu have gone to the BJP from the Congress and both of them have at one time had a very good relationship with Ashu.

 

Ashu has an additional advantage. He started his political career by contesting as an independent candidate in the Ludhiana Municipal Corporation elections way back in 1997 and won. Later he joined the Congress. He fought the assembly election for the first time in 2012 and won. He won again in 2017. ON both occasions his margin was huge at more than 35,000 votes. He enjoys the confidence and support among people belonging to different political orientations. And that is why the AAP is feeling concerned and seriously challenged.

 

Whether the BJP and the Congress really have any “unwritten understanding”, but there is a widespread perception that they do have “some understanding” against a “common enemy”, the AAP. Not surprisingly the Congress and the BJP leaders have been mostly avoiding each other and have only been targeting the AAP and its leaders. The AAP in turn has also been mainly targeting the Congress as it also eyes the swinging vote that went to the BJP in 2024 General Elections.

 

One thing is for sure that there is a lot of anti-incumbency against the AAP government, which is not unusual after three and a half years. The opposition is trying to channelise the anti-incumbency sentiment in a united way. That is the reason the Congress and the BJP are not opposing each other.

 

Some of the BJP leaders have openly appealed to their voters that no matter for whom they vote, they should only ensure that they are not letting the AAP win and Kejriwal go to the Rajya Sabha. And that is how the twain, Congress-BJP, shall meet in Ludhiana West by-election.