mehbooba-beats-a-tactical-retreat

Politics is a game of snakes and ladders. It holds true for every political party and almost every politician. People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of Jammu and Kashmir, right now, appears to have been bitten by the snake and cannot see any ladder. Its supremo and former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti has herself opted out of the contest. 

She has however fielded her daughter Itlija Mufti from the family burrow, Bijbehara, earlier contested and represented by her father and the party’s founder Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and herself.

Mehbooba, on the face of it, has taken a “principled stand” and “high moral ground” for not contesting the elections. She says that the assembly that will get elected will be “powerless” given the fact that the union government recently curtailed most of the powers of the elected government and kept these with the Lieutenant Governor of the Union Territory, something similar to Delhi. Delhi, though is a “state” and not a union territory, as Jammu and Kashmir are right now.

 

Mehbooba had announced that she would not be contesting the assembly elections till the statehood was not restored. She claims that she has only stuck to her commitment, although the reasons for her not contesting, for sure, are entirely different. 

 

National Conference vice president and another former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had also made a similar commitment. However, he has opted to contest although Jammu and Kashmir continues to remain a union territory. There is a likelihood of Jammu and Kashmir getting back the statehood after the assembly elections. The Supreme Court of India has also ordered for the restoration of the statehood and the central government has also committed to restore it.

 

That way, Omar’s decision to contest the elections is a pragmatic one. Nobody would like to wait and see the JK getting the statehood while remaining out of the legislature. Moreover, when a person, like Omar, is in reckoning for the Chief Ministership.

Taking the higher ground

 

Mehbooba may have taken the “high moral ground” of sticking to her promise and commitment, the fact however remains that she has actually beaten a “strategic retreat”. The fortunes of her party are quite low this time. Her party candidates could not even save their security deposits in any of the parliamentary constituencies they contested in the 2024 General Elections. She herself lost her security deposit from the Anantnag-Rajouri parliamentary constituency. 

 

During the 2024 General Elections, Mehbooba joined the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), as had the National Conference. Technically the PDP still remains a part of the INDIA bloc. But, the PDP had to contest the General Elections on its own as the Congress and the National Conference did not concede any parliamentary seats to it.

 

The PDP had tried to extend an olive branch to the Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi also. However, Congress and Gandhi opted for the National Conference instead of the PDP. Although the Congress-NC alliance is a good proposition, it still is faced with tough challenges.

Who will support the PDP?

 

The PDP did not fit anywhere in the alliance. Any alliance between the National Conference and the PDP will be a misnomer. The party did not have any option but to go alone. In the past, the PDP had subtle support of the separatist and radical organisations like the Jamaat-e-Islami. It should be expecting similar support this time as well because the Jamaat-e-Islami supporters can neither go with the Congress nor with the National Conference.

 

The Jamaat-e-Islami currently remains banned for anti-national activities. Although its leadership had appealed for withdrawal of the ban so that it could participate in elections, there was no response from the government of India. The party has now decided to field its candidates “independently”. At the same time, there will be a definite “tactful understanding” with the PDP, particularly in South Kashmir. The two parties will extend support to each other in several constituencies. 

 

Morally Mehbooba cannot adopt an aggressive posture against the BJP or the Congress. Her party has aligned with both parties from time to time. After the 2014 assembly elections, the PDP formed a coalition government with the BJP in 2015, which lasted till 2018.

 

Given the anti-BJP rhetoric the PDP has been building up against the BJP now, the party will find it difficult to explain that alliance, particularly after the abrogation of Article 370. Such questions would have haunted Mehbooba during the campaigning if she contested herself. 

 

During the “pellet injuries” to stone pelting youth, Mehbooba as the Chief Minister was infamously quoted as having justified the pellet injuries. “Had a kid to buy a toffee from an army camp? A 15-year-old boy who attacked a police station, had he gone to buy milk?” she had said, while sort of justifying the use of pellet bullets against the stone-pelting protesters during her Chief Ministership. 

It’s all uphill for Mehbooba

As of now, Mehbooba Mufti and her party are faced with an uphill task to retain their political relevance in Jammu and Kashmir. 

 

Mehbooba inherited a great legacy from her late father Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, a former union Home Minister and two-time Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister. 

 

While any parallels with the late Mufti will be completely out of place and unjust to Mehbooba, she however cannot escape the weight of that legacy, which she is finding difficult to carry, retain and reclaim.

Not at least in the immediate future. Under such circumstances, she did not have any option, but to beat a “strategic retreat”, by not contesting herself, although she has decided to field candidates in all the 90 assembly segments across the Union Territory.