Pakistan and Saudi Arabia on Wednesday signed a defence pact precisely spelling out that attack on any of the two countries will be considered as an attack on both. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have a long-standing relationship. The latest defence pact is only the continuation of an old and long-standing relationship between the two Islamic nations.
Recently, Saudi Arabia provided $3 billion aid to Pakistan to help it on the foreign exchange reserve front. Pakistan has been providing defence support in terms of training and security to Saudi Arabia. Currently, an estimated 2,000 Pakistan army personnel are deployed in that country.
However, the Wednesday defence pact signed between the visiting Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman, the de facto ruler of the country, is viewed more in context of a possible future Arab-Israel conflict and the US unreliability, than anything else.
The recent attack by Israel on Qatar left the Islamic world, particularly the Arab countries, aghast. Israel had the audacity to attack Qatar in pursuit of the Hamas militants, that too, in the aftermath of US President Donald Trump’s visit to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates.
It was during this visit in the month of May that Qatar gifted a $400 million dollar Boeing jet to Trump for his personal use. That time as well, it was seen as an attempt by oil-rich Qatar to appease Trump to make him overlook the country's role in supporting Hamas and indirectly being responsible for the October 7, 2023 Hamas terror attack on Israel. The terror attack has prompted the ongoing Israeli retribution on Gaza, the Hamas headquarters.
The Saudi-Pak defence alliance is being viewed in context of the greater concerns among the Arab Islamic world about the growing aggressive stance of Israel in targeting the countries it suspects have been harbouring Hamas and other anti-Israel terror groups.
Prior to the attack on Qatar, Israel also attacked Iran apparently targeting its nuclear sites. The war lasted for 12 days. Although Iran also tried to retaliate, it was seen only as a face-saving exercise to address the domestic concerns. This was followed by the US forces attacking Iran which is believed to have caused considerable damage to the Iranian nuclear sites, almost having completely decapitated the country's ability to build a nuclear arsenal.
What has surprised, rather shocked the Arab world, including Saudi Arabia is the complete American indifference to Israeli attacks on Qatar. After Qatar's ruling family gifted the Boeing jet to Trump, it had expected some support from the US. But that just did not come. The best the US could do was to issue a “censure” to Israel over the attack on Qatar.
Most of the Arab countries have always pandered to the US even at the cost of Palestinian interests. The Arab countries looked the other way as the US continued to support Israel in its campaign against Arab countries in general and Palestine in particular.
Even during the recent Israeli military campaign in Gaza, that has almost razed it to the ground, the Arab world kept quiet except for token support through statements. It felt satisfied by “trying” to send aid to the war hit Gaza, most of which did not reach there.
Now the Arab countries seem to have realised, and rightly so, that they cannot depend on the US in any case and more so when it comes to a possible conflict with Israel. The US will not even remain neutral in that scenario as Israel remains the long-standing military ally.
In fact, Israel is the only country that Donald Trump has not let down so far. Otherwise, he has not spared any country and backed out at the last moment. Ukraine, which took on the mighty Russia just because of the US support and assurance, has also been left to its own fate.
Also read: Has Israel crossed the line by attacking Qatar?
The US under President Trump is practically backing out of all its military commitments, including NATO. The US is the pivot on which NATO stands and survives. If Trump can back out from NATO, he can always back out from any other commitment. The Arab countries do not stand anywhere in his scheme of things particularly when the US has practically no security concerns in the region. The Arab countries also realise that any possible conflict in the region can mainly be with Israel. In that case the US will obviously stand with Israel.
Pakistan is the only Islamic country with nuclear capability. It has built its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent against India, also a nuclear power. By entering into a defence pact with nuclear-powered Pakistan, Saudi Arabia has assured for itself the “availability of nuclear deterrence”. In fact, not just Saudi Arabia, the pact is seen to have the tacit support of most of the countries in the region, which see Israel as a potential, perennial and existential threat.
This is likely to lead to a complex diplomatic situation. The defence pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is clearly aimed as a counter to Israel, a permanent US ally. Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia enjoy very good relations with the US. How the US will look at the pact remains to be seen, particularly when Pakistan already has strong defence ties with China, a staunchly hostile rival to the US.
The Saudi-Pak defence pact marks the beginning of a new world order where fresh alliances are likely to emerge and much of the “credit” for all this goes to Trump, who has made the US allies rethink and realise that they can no longer take the US support for granted. And accordingly, the allies have started exploring and working out on new options sans the US.
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