Pakistan has finally realised that it is the river Indus that is its proverbial “jugular vein” which runs through India, and not Kashmir, it has often been shouting about. India has just touched its “jugular vein”, and not pressed it as yet, and the entire country has started crying and screaming. From the rhetoric of ‘an act of war’ to expressing willingness to a “neutral probe” into the terror attack in Pahalgam, Pakistan seems to have woken up to the harsh reality that its real “jugular vein” actually runs through India, which it can press anytime. Pakistan fully knows the consequences of that: it will pant and gasp for breath in case the vein is pressed.
The Indus Water Treaty was signed in September 1960 in Karachi, between India and Pakistan under the leadership of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru on behalf of India and Field Marshal Ayub Khan on behalf of Pakistan. Once the treaty was signed, Pakistan started flexing its muscles. Within five years of the signing of the treaty, Pakistan attacked India in 1965. This was preceded by sending of infiltrators into Kashmir. India had just recovered from its war with China. Pakistan’s military dictator Ayub Khan apparently wanted to take advantage and had to beat a retreat, as Pakistan always did later as well. This was followed by the 1971 Bangladesh War and the Kargil War in 1999.
In between, Pakistan continued with its policy of “bleeding India with a thousand cuts” by continuously instigating and sponsoring terrorism in India. After the idea of infiltration in Kashmir failed in the 1960s, as the Kashmiris did not cooperate, another Pakistani military dictator General Zia-ul-Haq sponsored terrorism in Punjab. As the Punjabis also did not cooperate, Pakistan turned to Kashmir once again and pushed it into a long-drawn militancy. Now, infiltration into Jammu and Kashmir from Pakistan is a regular feature of Pakistan’s “state policy”.
All through the six decades of the Indus Water Treaty, Pakistan took it for granted that India would not resort to any retaliatory and punitive action no matter what grave provocations it resorts to. This is despite the fact that the prime riparian state of Jammu and Kashmir (right now a union territory) has always had strong reservations against the Indus Water Treaty. This is because Jammu and Kashmir has been denied most of the share of the waters of Jhelum and Chenab, which flow entirely into Pakistan, with all the rights having been ceded to Pakistan under the treaty.
Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah supported the government of India’s move to suspend the Indus Water Treaty. Reacting to the suspension, he said, “We have never been in favour of the Indus Water Treaty. We have always believed that the Indus Water Treaty has been the most unfair document to the people J&K.”
Although Punjab has not been affected by the Indus Water Treaty, as it has complete rights over the waters of Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers, people of the state have opposed it from time to time, saying that it was always a bad treaty that had been brokered by the World Bank between India and Pakistan.
There have been repeated demands from various quarters within India to scrap the Indus Water Treaty from time to time. It is for the first time that the Government of India has finally suspended the treaty. It will, however, take some time to restrict or divert the flow of water to Pakistan. Once done, Pakistan will literally be left high and dry. Pakistan’s agriculture fields will turn dry, besides people will cry for drinking water. Agriculture constitutes about one-fourth of Pakistan’s economy. Not only will the economy collapse, it will lead to social unrest in that country. This will be in over and above the devastation Pakistan may suffer in case of an armed conflict with India.
That explains the frustration among the Pakistan rulers who have said everything from “act of war” which would be retaliated, to Bilawal Bhutto’s remark “blood will flow if India stops Indus River water”.
In the aftermath of the Uri attack in 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had famously said, while suggesting the scrapping of the Indus Water Treaty that “blood and water cannot flow together”. Again in 2019, when over 40 soldiers were killed in a suicide attack in Pulwama, there was a demand for scrapping the treaty. India has actually given a long rope to Pakistan. Now is the time to execute the decision and prevent flow of Indus Water into Pakistan.
Although India is bound by international commitment, given the repeated terror attacks, which are sponsored by the Pakistan government on Indian soil, it should not be a major problem for the Government of India to explain to the global community that it did not have any option. After all, India will not be retaliating like Israel is doing in Gaza, although India is capable of doing that. Also, the global community would be least interested in getting involved in another conflict, as its hands are already full with Trump tariffs, Russia-Ukraine War and the Middle East conflict.
Although the Government of India in the past has repeatedly gone lenient after initial threats, this time, it has already gone ahead with suspending the treaty. After all, as Prime Minister Modi said in 2016, “blood and water cannot flow together” and it must not be allowed to flow together.
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