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It is a strange irony, that one of the oldest political parties in the country, the Shiromani Akali Dal has opted out of fighting the November 13 by-elections to four assembly segments. Something strange and unprecedented as the Akali Dal is exclusively a Punjab and Panthic-centered party.

 

Instead, its former alliance partner, the Bharatiya Janata Party has fielded candidates from all the four assembly segments.

 

The ruling Aam Aadmi Party and the principal opposition party, the Congress are obviously contesting from all the four constituencies. Of the four, three, Gidderbaha, Dera Baba Nanak and Chabbewal were earlier represented by the Congress, while Barnala was represented by the AAP.

 

The four sitting MLAs from these constituencies got elected to the Lok Sabha in the General Elections, thus necessitating the by-elections. While it will not be an easy task for the Congress to retain all the three, for the AAP, the only stake is in Barnala as it is the only segment it was representing.

 

The Chabbewal MLA, Dr Raj Kumar Chabbewal defected to the AAP from the Congress and contested from Hoshiarpur parliamentary constituency, which he won. The AAP has now fielded his son Ishan Chabbewal.

 

In all the four assembly segments, it is going to be a triangular contest between the AAP, the Congress and the BJP. Interestingly, for the first time in 30 years there will be no Akali candidate in all the four assembly segments.

 

Interestingly, three of the four candidates fielded by the BJP in Gidderbaha, Chabbewal and Dera Baba Nanak were originally in the Akali Dal. While Manpreet parted ways with the Akali Dal, 14 years ago in 2010, when he was suspended, Dera Baba Nanak candidate Ravi Kahlon joined the BJP last year and the Chabbewal candidate Sohan Singh Thandal joined the BJP just a day before the last date of filing of the nomination papers. Both defected from the Akali Dal to join the BJP.

 

The Barnala candidate of the BJP is also originally from the Congress, who joined the BJP ahead of the 2022 assembly elections, after he was denied ticket by the party,(the Congress).

 

During the Akali-BJP alliance days, all these four assembly segments were with the Akali Dal in the seat sharing arrangement. Although the BJP contested two of these constituencies independently in the 2022 assembly elections that time the Akali Dal was also in the fray. The other two seats, Dera Baba Nanak and Gidderbaha, the BJP had left for its alliance partner, the Punjab Lok Congress of Capt Amarinder Singh, which fared poorly. The Punjab Lok Congress later merged with the BJP when Capt Amarinder joined the saffron party.

 

Whether it is just a coincidence or a deliberate attempt by the Akali Dal it is difficult to say. But in politics, coincidences are quite rare. The ruling AAP and the opposition Congress have already alleged that there was a tacit understanding between the BJP, the Akali factions including the radicals like Amritpal and Faridkot MP Sarabjeet Singh as they have not fielded any candidate anywhere.

 

Since there is no Akali faction in fray, the BJP expects to get the votes of staunch Akalis, who can “never vote” for the Congress. Earlier they had switched over to the AAP since they were disillusioned with the Akalis. But now they are same way disillusioned with the AAP. As the Congress option is always out of question, there is hope among the BJP quarters that it may manage to get a significant number of votes of this section.

 

That is the reason the BJP remains very much in serious contest in all the four assembly segments. Besides, the strong Akali background of the three of the four candidates will make it easy for them to influence the traditional Akali voters, who will not have any problem in voting for the BJP. 

 

IN the 2024 General Elections, the BJP polled 18 percent votes besides leading in 23 assembly segments, although it could not win any of the parliamentary seats.

 

There is a widespread perception that for the traditional Akali Dal voters, many of whom had switched over to the AAP, may vote for the BJP this time. As most of them are believed to be disillusioned with the AAP and with no Akali candidate in the fray, most of them may prefer BJP to the Congress.

 

Moreover, the BJP candidates have strong Akali roots and connections. Manpreet Badal has represented Gidderbaha four times as an Akali candidate and is extensively connected with the area. Similarly Sohan Singh Thandal was a senior Akali leader and a former minister. Ravi Kahlon belongs to the traditional Akali family as his father late Nirmal Singh Kahlon was a veteran Akali leader and served as a minister between 1997 and 2002 and remained the Speaker of the Punjab Vidhan Sabha between 2007 and 2012.

 

Although the Akali Dal has adopted a completely “anti-BJP” posture and stance right now, under the current circumstances the saffron party still remains its only option if and when it needs an alliance.

 

An alliance with the AAP or the Congress remains out of question. The party is fighting an existential battle right now. Even in the best of the times, it could not win a clear majority of its own and had to depend on the BJP.

 

The Akalis need an alliance partner now more than any other time and the BJP remains its only option. Obviously for the cadres the BJP will be the only option among the three, to vote and support.