risking-it-all-mann-takes-a-big-gamble-in-jalandhar

Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann is a charismatic leader. Before getting active in politics he was a popular Punjabi comedian, whose comedy was full of political satire. 

 

The distinct feature of Mann’s comedy was that it was not only satirical but “decent, neat and clean” as well that one could enjoy it while sitting with the family. 

 

It was his charisma that helped the Aam Aadmi Party first to establish its roots in Punjab and then storm to power. Although he was not the only candidate who won in the 2014 General Elections on the AAP ticket, as there were three others as well, he was the sole winner in 2019, when the party was completely routed in the state, as elsewhere. 

 

Rest, as they say, is history. Mann led the AAP to a historic landslide victory in 2022, winning 92 of the 117 assembly segments.

 

Like those were the best times, these are the most challenging times for Mann. He has led the party to a poor show winning just 3 of the 13 parliamentary segments in the 2024 General Elections. The vote share came down from 41 per cent in 2022 to 26 per cent. The party’s lead in the assembly segments came down to 33 from 92. 

 

Although party general secretary in-charge for Punjab and its ace strategist Sandeep Pathak have been drawing comparisons of 2024 with 2019, which makes the AAP performance look like a grand success, the reality is that the party is faced with tough times ahead as questions have started being raised on the AAP government’s performance. 

 

It is a fact that people normally get disillusioned in two years, more so in Punjab, where anti-incumbency creeps in by the time parliamentary elections are held after the assembly elections, that cannot be any consolation to the party since the insiders know the harsh reality.

 

Under these challenging circumstances and amidst such a tough situation, the AAP has to face a single by-election in the Jalandhar West assembly segment. 

 

There are four more by-elections scheduled which have been necessitated by the election of the sitting MLAs to the parliament, Jalandhar West by-election was necessitated by the resignation of the sitting AAP MLA Sheetal Angural who joined the BJP before the General Elections.

 

Although Angural had decided to withdraw his resignation, his withdrawal was not accepted by the Speaker Kultar Singh Sandhwan. It is difficult to understand whether the AAP government really wanted a by-election in the immediate aftermath of the General Elections, where its performance was not at all satisfactory. 

 

Chief Minister Mann’s authority is under serious challenge if not a threat. He has asserted his authority to the full, during his entire term. Notwithstanding the claims of the opposition that the government was being run from Delhi, Mann has always had his way, wherever he wanted and he continues to do that. 

 

And he should be doing that. After all, he is the elected Chief Minister of the state. AAP’s phenomenal performance in the 2022 assembly elections owes a lot to his nomination as the party’s Chief Ministerial candidate. People did vote for the AAP as a party to rule, at the same time they did vote for Mann to be the Chief Minister. 

 

Two years of anti-incumbency and widespread disillusionment on various counts that resulted in a bad show in General Elections has put the credibility of the government at stake. 

 

Chief Minister Mann appears to have taken the challenge by taking the gamble to lead the Jalandhar West assembly by-election campaign himself. 

 

Normally the Chief Ministers do not assume the frontal role during such by-elections. The party had reportedly initially decided not to make Mann the face of the by-election. There were two views about this proposal. 

 

One view was that the party wanted to protect and shield the Chief Minister’s image in case of a defeat, which is very much a possibility, given the AAP’s vote count from this segment in the parliamentary election. The AAP candidate came a poor third way behind the Congress and the BJP candidates.

 

There was a gap of about 28,765 between the AAP and the winning candidate from here. It will not be so easy to bridge.  

 

The second view was that the party wanted to cut the Chief Minister to size and direct the campaign from Delhi. It is this factor that apparently led Mann to take charge of the campaign himself. Whatever the reason for not making him the face of the party, would certainly not have sent the right signals across. Mann proved wise enough to nip all such speculations in the bud.

 

But this decision is not without a serious challenge. He is faced with an uphill task, despite having moved his residence to Jalandhar. The reason for taking up a residence there was taken to ward off the criticism that the Chief Minister was taking extra interest here and misusing the official machinery. Since now he has a residence here, he has an alibi to stay here round the clock.

 

Interestingly the opposition parties did not object to his ‘round the clock’ presence in Jalandhar. Normally the opposition would have objected to it for the reason that his presence could prove prejudicial to their prospects, as the local administration would be under his direct influence since it is under the direct control of the Chief Minister. 

 

Mann indeed has run a very effective campaign. Being in such an advantageous position of being the Chief Minister provides him the additional benefit vis-à-vis the local administration. He has managed to rope in leaders from the opposition parties like the Congress and the BJP. 

 

Whether all his efforts will pay the desired dividends in the shape of victory is difficult to conclude since the AAP got only 15629 votes in the parliamentary elections from here, while the Congress and the BJP got 44,394 and 42,837 votes respectively. 

 

This means the AAP has to cover a gap of 28,765 votes as compared to the parliamentary elections. No doubt there are different factors at play during the parliamentary and assembly elections, still the gap is too huge and may take a lot of effort to bridge. 

 

Even in the 2022 assembly elections, when the AAP swept the state with huge margins, the party candidate Sheetal Angural won from here with a relatively smaller margin of 4283 votes only. While he got 39001 votes, the Congress candidate Sushil Rinku got 34718 votes. The BJP candidate Mohinder Bhagat got 33279 votes.

 

Interestingly, it is the reversal of roles between the AAP and the BJP candidates this time as compared to the 2022 assembly elections. While Sheetal Angural was the AAP candidate in 2022, he is now contesting as the BJP candidate, the AAP candidate Mohinder Bhagat was the BJP candidate in 2022 and is now contesting as the AAP candidate. 

 

And Sushil Rinku, who contested as a Congress candidate in 2002, joined the AAP in 2023 to contest the Lok Sabha by-election necessitated by the death of sitting Congress MP Chaudhary Santokh and got elected, he is now with the BJP. He contested the Jalandhar parliamentary seat unsuccessfully against Charanjit Singh Channi of the Congress. 

 

With such an interestingly complex scenario, Jalandhar West poses a serious challenge to the Chief Minister in person, as by now, he has turned the fight into “Mann versus the rest”. 

 

He has taken a big gamble, but he did not have any other choice, either.