Much before the American President Donald Trump implemented his ruthless anti-immigration policy and launched an aggressive crackdown on the “undocumented” immigrants, thousands of Indian students from the neighbouring Canada had been trying to slip into the United States.
As Canada was hit by one of the worst ever recessions, with hardly any jobs available there, the majority of the students and those who had completed their studies and were staying on work permit started moving to the US. Illegal route was the only option to reach the US and many did manage and mostly through hostile and treacherous routes, similar like the one Gujarat family that died in cold weather conditions while trying to cross over to the US.
Most of these students had no idea about the future that was awaiting them. They had moved to the US under the impression that like other undocumented immigrants they may also end up being “lucky” there and mix and merge with them. However, with Trump’s crackdown, most of them are now at a greater risk of being deported back to India. Given the strained relationship between the US and Canada and now very strict vigilance along the border, they do not have any chance to go back to Canada although most of them do still possess valid Canadian study visas or work permits.
This has led to growing realisation back in India, particularly in the states like Punjab and Gujarat that the “risk” is no longer worth taking. An overwhelming majority of the students who would go, mainly, to Canada would go only after selling their land or taking loans from various sources in the hope that they may make it better in Canada. As the reports about the fate that most of the students have met in Canada, there has been a sharp decline in the number of applicants seeking study visas to Canada.
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According to the immigration agents dealing in student visas, the number has come down drastically. While the trend had started last year only, after Trump took over, which had an adverse impact on Canada’s economy, the number of applicants dropped further. In the year 2024, there was reportedly a 41 per cent decline in the number of Indian students seeking Canadian study visas. This was also because the Canadian government realised it had been allowing many more students than its economy could accommodate. It had led to the overall increase in cost of living there, housing in particular.
Immigration agents suggest that a perception has also been built up in Punjab that the peaceful atmosphere in Canada has been vitiated because of the frequent demonstrations by radical elements against India. Some clashes between the pro-Khalistan and pro-India groups, including one outside a Brampton temple have also added to the safety and security concerns among all the parents who are now reluctant to send their wards to Canada. That is also one of the reasons that Canada got the maximum hit with a 41 per cent drop in the number of students going there last year.
The situation was also exacerbated due to the diplomatic tension between India and Canada after the then Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau blamed India for the killing of pro-Khalistan activist Hardeep Singh Nijjer on Canadian soil. The other factors include stricter security on the documents for granting study visas, increase in financial burden like Guaranteed Investment Certificate, overall cap in study permits.
Added to this is now the US-Canada diplomatic tension over the tariff war started by the US. The 25 per cent tariff imposed by the US on various Canadian imports, particularly vehicles and the reciprocal tariff imposed by Canada is likely to hit the Canadian economy badly. It was already reeling under severe recession and the tariffs will further complicate the matters.
Things were never easy for the students in Canada for the last few years, now these are going to be more difficult. With the result there is likelihood of a number of them trying to return home, which would rarely happen in the past. The students mostly go there with the expectation that along with the studies they may be able to work also, to at least manage their day-to-day affairs. With an economy already in recession and further hit by the tariffs, there are no jobs at all for the students, forcing them to look for the toughest option of returning home with their dreams shattered.
According to the news magazine India Today, Indian students spent about $11.7 billion to study in Canada in the year 2023-24 of which $3.7 billion were spent by the Punjabi students alone.
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