The Aam Aadmi Party government in Punjab, as of now, remains firmly in the saddle, safe and stable. Claims by some Congress leaders that some of the MLAs are in touch with the party notwithstanding, it is highly unlikely that the government will fall or there will be any change of guard. It is more wishful thinking among the opposition parties, particularly the Congress.
However, the AAP’s national leadership reacted in a bit of panic by calling all the party legislators from Punjab to Delhi. Before holding the meeting of the newly elected legislators of Delhi, the AAP supremo held a meeting with the Punjab legislators, attended by Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann and his ministerial colleagues.
The “urgent” meeting of the Punjab legislators added fuel to the fire of speculations triggered by the Congress leaders’ claims of an imminent revolt in the ruling party of Punjab in the aftermath of the Delhi debacle of the party.
Some harsh electoral and mathematical realities go against the change of government. The ruling AAP has a brute majority with 94 legislators in a house of 117. Congress has just 18 members. It will need at least 40 AAP legislators to break the government and support the breakaway group, if any. But, why would the AAP legislators rebel and break away from their parent party? They are not going to gain anything extra. In any case, they are the sitting legislators of the ruling party.
Just because the party lost one of the two state governments does not mean the second will fall without any apparent reason. The AAP government in Punjab still has two more years left. It may not be doing its best, but there does not seem any visible threat to the government from any quarter. There has not been any dissent against the government or the Chief Minister either.
Under such circumstances, assuming that the government may fall and there may be snap polls, or if there will be a change of guard within the government, are quite speculative assumptions, normally made on such occasions.
Yes, one thing is sure, there may be certain changes in how the government is being run in the state. The party's high command, including the convenor, Arvind Kejriwal may take some extra interest in the state, to ensure that the party gets reelected in 2027 as well.
It is a fact that the Punjab government needs to carry out certain amends and corrections. With Kejriwal now relatively free, his focus will be on Punjab. And this is quite a normal thing to happen. There is nothing unusual about it.
Congress, in Punjab, indeed is upbeat over AAP’s defeat in Delhi. Had the AAP won again, it would have boosted the confidence and the morale of the party’s rank and file in Punjab, besides establishing the belief about the invincibility of the party. Now that AAP has lost the Delhi citadel, its stronghold for three elections, Punjab can also be vulnerable.
That way Congress has the right reasons to feel optimistic and look forward to returning to power. But the Congressmen appear to be in an extra hurry and they want to fast-forward from 2025 to 2027, which is quite unlikely. Also, 2027 does not guarantee anything to anyone, whether it is Congress or the AAP. Two years period is a very long time in politics.
The Congress has no option but to wait. Its wishful thinking about snap polls, after the government collapses, is quite unlikely to materialise.
At the same time, the AAP will need to redo and rework many things. The legislators may not opt out of the party, but that does not mean all of them are happy with the way things are going under their party’s government. There is a lot of disillusionment and disenchantment among the people in general and the AAP rank and file in particular. The AAP has sufficient time to do course corrections to remain in the game.
For now, one thing is sure the AAP government is here to stay. It is too firmly saddled to be dislodged anytime soon. The Congress is not in a position to do that and the BJP does not see any prospects for itself, right now, in dislodging it. Permutations and combinations at this stage are such that the AAP government will stay unless and until there is some serious internal revolt, which seems highly unlikely at this stage.
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