In politics, it is not only the opponents who make rivals, but even the colleagues and partners also. The classic case is the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress alliance in Bihar. With Lalu Prasad Yadav weighed down by convictions in criminal cases, age, and health, the RJD mantle has been passed on to his younger son Tejashwi Yadav, while the elder remains alienated and has been expelled from the party. Lalu has actually disowned him and placed all his bets on Tejashwi.
Barring a brief break, in 2020, Bihar has been continuously ruled by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) comprising the Janata Dal-United and the Bharatiya Janata Party besides some other political parties, with Nitish Kumar being the Chief Minister. Even when his JD-U made a switchover to the ‘Mahagathbandhan’, he remained the Chief Minister. Now Nitish has “resolved and promised” to always remain with the NDA.
Even after being in power continuously for almost 20 years, there is no visible “anti-incumbency” against the NDA government. The elections, which are likely to be held in the month of November, still look like an “open game” with no favourites.
This is because the RJD, the principal opposition party, is not even the pale shadow of its past as it used to be during the days of Lalu Prasad Yadav. His son Tejashwi does not inspire much confidence, his only “qualification” being that he is the son of Lalu Yadav. He has so far not come out as an impressive leader who could lead the party and the state.
When Rahul Gandhi led the ‘Voter Adhikar Yatra’ in Bihar for 16 days, Tejashwi was in tow. He accompanied Rahul during the entire ‘yatra’ for all the 16 days. As it turned out later, the RJD, Tejashwi, and Lalu learned and realised that the show that was hosted by the RJD was stolen by Rahul.
Although Rahul does not have any great achievements to his credit and is in no way better than Tejashwi when it comes to any political or electoral achievement, being a ‘Gandhi’ and inheriting the much bigger party, the Congress, with a national footprint as compared to the exclusively Bihar-based RJD, he would always seem and sound better than Tejashwi.
Naturally, Rahul dominated the entire show. He was the last one to speak during the yatra programmes. The media also highlighted Rahul only. Tejashwi was bracketed with other INDIA bloc leaders like Dipankar Bhattacharya while Rahul was made to stand out.
This was despite the fact that the entire crowds, which flocked the ‘Yatra’, were from the RJD. The message was not lost on anyone, particularly the shrewd Lalu. He abstained from attending the concluding day rally in Patna, which was supposed to be a mega event but ended as a routine programme. Both Rahul and the Congress president barely spoke that day for obvious reasons.
The RJD leaders also noticed the absence of the RJD flags, posters, and cutouts of their leaders, including Lalu and Tejashwi. While most of the supporters who attended the rally belonged to the RJD, it ended up like a “Congress show” only.
The RJD is in a fix. Lalu realises that he does not have any other option but to stick to the Congress. He can still bargain for seats and positions in an alliance with the Congress and still exert his authority given the RJD’s statewide presence.
But the problem for him is that Congress also knows that he has no other options. Staying with the Congress is his compulsion. Even with an alliance with the Congress, the two could just win seven of the 40 parliamentary seats in Bihar in the 2024 General Elections. In case they go their separate ways, both of them will be wiped out.
The only consolation for the RJD and Tejashwi is that Rahul is not in competition with him. Both have separate and respective areas of operation. While Rahul is a Prime Ministerial aspirant, Tejashwi aspires only to be the Bihar Chief Minister. Even the complete clarity on their respective and prospective roles does not guarantee smooth sailing for the alliance.
The RJD is apprehensive of Congress eating into its vote base. The RJD has played up the ‘Yadav-Muslim’ card and exploited it to the hilt. The Congress is also targeting the same vote bank, particularly the Muslims. Rahul makes no qualms about wooing Muslims and at times even surpassing Lalu in trying to appease the community.
This is a direct threat to the RJD, which is now feeling threatened more by the Congress than the BJP. Because the RJD and the BJP have separate respective “political constituencies” which hardly overlap with each other. But the same is not the case between the Congress and the RJD. Their political constituencies do overlap. With Rahul proving to be more assertive and impressive as compared to Tejashwi, the RJD has the genuine apprehensions of Rahul not only overshadowing him (Tejashwi) but also intruding into its traditional voter base.
Nothing was lost on the RJD leadership. It has now decided to organise a separate ‘Yatra’, which will be led by Tejashwi alone. The idea is clear: to project Lalu’s successor as the real alternative. Tejashwi’s problem has also been compounded by media strategist turned politician Prashant Kishor, who is likely to contest against him from the Raghunathpur assembly segment, where he (Tejashwi) is the sitting MLA. Kishor is presenting himself to be the “son of the soil” instead of the son of any particular leader.
This assembly election is going to be the “lifetime test” for Lalu Yadav, whether he will be able to preserve his political legacy, which is under threat from both friends as well as foes. While Lalu could still manage with the convictions and jailed life, he is finding it difficult to run the show with serious illness that has made him almost immobile, thus leaving a challenging task ahead for Tejashwi.
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