there-is-a-pattern-in-coordinated-terror-attacks-in-jk

The relative peace in Kashmir valley, illustrated by lakhs of tourists from outside states visiting there in the last few years, had generated tremendous optimism that the state had returned to the pre-1990 era. 

 

While this was always an exaggerated optimism, things did look better for a while. If the overflowing tourist crowd can be taken as an example then Kashmir continues to be normal. 

 

But it actually is not. 

 

Selective killings did take place at regular intervals during this “normalcy” and terror attacks are taking place regularly in Southern Kashmir. 

 

Those behind the well-coordinated terror attacks across the union territory and erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir are only strategically avoiding any major terror incident in the mainland Kashmir valley.

 

This is because they realise that in case of any terror incident there, the tourist industry that has boomed phenomenally in the last few years will come crashing down. This may possibly lead to resentment among the local public, which has otherwise mostly been sympathetic towards such incidents. 

 

These coordinated attacks have also exploded the myth that the terror incidents had come down, as Pakistan was too preoccupied with itself. The crashing economy, alarming political instability and the continued sectarian violence have dogged Pakistan for a long time now.

 

That is correct about the State of Pakistan. But there is a state within the state in Pakistan, the ‘Deep State’ controlled by the all-powerful Pakistan Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which acts of its own “sweet” will.

 

This in no way means that the political leadership in Pakistan has ever softened its hostile stand and stance towards India. The official state policy of Pakistan, to bleed India with 100 cuts continues even today. Just because political leadership is preoccupied with its own “existential crisis” it may not be paying as much attention to Kashmir as in the past. 

 

That Pakistan, like China, is a perennial enemy is a well-acknowledged reality. There is no point in lowering the guard at any stage no matter what the circumstances may seem. Let us not forget that while Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was travelling to Lahore in a bus to meet Nawaz Sharif to script a new era of peace and friendship, the Pakistan army was planning an attack in Kargil and occupying strategic heights.

 

This eventually led to a full-fledged war that ended with India reclaiming its land, but not without a huge human and material cost. 

 

That such a thing will never happen will be too naïve to think. Rather, something worse can always happen. That is why the country will need to be prepared for any worse eventuality that Pakistan may force on India, like it forced the Pulwama terror attack in February 2019.

 

The abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 did generate a strong sense of optimism across the country and rightly so. The abrogation of Article 370 broke the myth of Kashmir’s “conditional accession” with India and “special status” that guaranteed greater autonomy different from the rest of the states. 

 

The abrogation of Article 370 did cause a fatal blow to the secessionist ideology, which was nourishing the myth that Kashmir is not as integral a part of India as other states.

 

The prolonged spell of visible peace, as there were no major terror-related incidents in the union territory, apparently did lead to some sort of complacency somewhere. Otherwise, what can explain the surprise attacks by trained militants using highly sophisticated weapons against the Indian army.

 15 soldiers have lost their lives in the last one and a half months only. While in the latest spurt, the initial target was the Jammu region, terror attacks have started taking place in the Kashmir valley as well.

 

It may not be just a coincidence that the terror attacks intensified after Narendra Modi took oath as the Prime Minister of the country for a record third time. There are extra-territorial forces also that are not happy with Modi continuing as the Prime Minister of a powerful democracy like India.

 

This goes without saying that under Modi India has been seen as a strong nation capable of chalking its own independent diplomatic course and asserting it as well. 

 

The independent stand taken by India in the Russia-Ukraine War is an example and possibly a reason that many people around the world are not very happy with India’s rise.

 

The weapons left by the NATO forces in Afghanistan after they left have found their way into Jammu and Kashmir. Security agencies have seized some weapons, that were earlier used by the NATO forces, and are now being used by the terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir. These are highly sophisticated weapons with lethal capacity. 

 

How the weapons could find their way into India from Afghanistan could be anybody’s guess. India’s independent stand on the Ukraine war and the country’s long-term relationship with Russia may also be among the reasons for the consistent and well-coordinated terror attacks on the Indian Army. 

 

Three important inferences can be drawn from the recent spurt in terror activity in Jammu and Kashmir. In fact, these are not mere terror attacks, these are well-coordinated attacks by trained militants with highly sophisticated weapons used by regular armies. There is definitely a link beyond Pakistan to these attacks as is evident from the weapons used by the terrorists, some of which have also been seized by Indian security forces. 

 

Second, the myth of Pakistan going soft about Kashmir or the political leadership there, changing its stubborn attitude towards India, for whatever reasons. The perennial fact remains that the ‘Deep State’ in Pakistan works according to its own will, particularly when it comes to India and Kashmir. 

 

The third and most important thing is the myth of the return to “normalcy” in Kashmir. Normalcy may have different definitions and interpretations for different people, but mere peace does not automatically mean normalcy in Kashmir. “Momentary peace” may be a strategic retreat to bide time for reorganizing everything. As things are unfolding in the entire union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, the “momentary peace” appears to have been strategic only in multiple ways.

 

Given the difficult terrain the terrorists are using for their activities and hiding themselves, it may take a little longer to flush them out, which eventually they will be. 

 

Moreover, the terrorists involved in the latest attacks have been found to be highly trained with experience in using various sophisticated weapons. And such things are not done and carried out overnight. It needs long-term planning and preparation before the final execution. Strange enough nothing was noticed and detected in these stages.