trump-delivers-defeat-to-conservatives-in-canada

Conservatives in Canada and the Republicans in the United States were supposed to be ideological cousins, if not twins. However, in an ironic turn of events, it is Republican US President Donald Trump, who primarily became the reason for the defeat of Conservatives, who, otherwise till January this year before Trump took over, were poised to return to power in the North American country after 10 years.

 

The Conservatives were leading over the ruling Liberal Party by 20 percentage points, just four months ago. Today, as the results of the federal elections came out, they are set to sit in the opposition for the third consecutive term.

 

Conservatives would have expected Trump to be friendly to them and his victory in the US Presidential elections obviously had enthused them initially. More so, Conservatives were leading in all surveys till as late as January 2025. This was despite Trump’s election promise of imposing tariffs on all imports, including from friendly countries like Canada. In fact, after Trump’s victory was announced in November elections, the Conservatives in Canada continued to maintain their lead over their arch-rival, the Liberal Party.

 

There were quite a few reasons for the Conservatives emerging as favourites. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau faced strong anti-incumbency after having been at the helm for about nine years. Canada’s economy was facing acute recession. Cost of living had substantially gone up. There were no jobs. This was attributed to Trudeau’s liberal, rather reckless, immigration policy, which he himself admitted had gone wrong. He faced strong rebellion against his leadership from within his own party with a number of Liberal Members of Parliament seeking his resignation. His approval ratings had gone drastically bad.

 

When Trudeau escalated diplomatic tensions with India, it eventually led to the two countries expelling high commissioners from their respective countries along with most of the diplomatic staff.

 

Trudeau was seen to be appeasing the radical Sikh elements too much. He also blamed the Government of India for the killing of Khalistan activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. However, till now the Canadian government has not provided any evidence or proof in this regard. Trudeau’s charge against India was attributed to his attempts to divert public attention from his own failures, which sounded true to a great extent.

 

But all this could not divert or deflect the strong rebellion against his leadership within the Liberal Party. The party leaders and MPs were apprehensive that in case he continued as the party leader and the prime minister, they were doomed. Eventually, Trudeau resigned from the party leadership and from the post of the prime minister in the month of January.

 

He was replaced by Mark Carney who is not a professional politician in the real sense as he had never held a political office so far. But, he has the unique distinction of having served as the Governor of the Central Bank of England and the Central Bank of Canada. Carney heralded a phase of hope among the Liberal followers. His strong economic background was thought to help Canada navigate the economic crisis it was facing.

 

While he took over as the Prime Minister, immediately Trump went ahead with his decision of imposing tariffs on imports from all the countries. This included Canada as well. It came as a rude shock for the Canadians, who considered the US as their closest aide, ally and friend, besides being the closest neighbour. The popular anger against the Liberal Party had already subsided after Trudeau’s exit, but the party was still trailing behind the Conservatives even after Carney took over as the Prime Minister.

 

Then Trump announced 25 percent tariffs on Canadian imports. This could not have come at a worst time when the Canadian economy was already reeling under severe pressure. Not just the tariffs, Trump’s repeated assertions that he wanted Canada to be the 51^st state of the US also angered the Canadians. There was a surge in patriotic sentiment across Canada. The “swing” vote, which had shifted towards the Conservatives, started moving back towards the Liberals as Conservatives were seen ideologically closer to the Republicans. This is despite the fact that the Conservative Party and its leader Pierre Poilievre took an unambiguous stand against the US tariffs. Rather, during the debate with Carney, he was seen on the same page.

 

Here Carney’s credentials as an eminent economist and international bankers stood him in good stead. Majority of the Canadians believed that he was better placed to lead Canada in the challenging times that were ahead. Poilievre, who is relatively younger than Carney, was seen as a light weight as compared to the latter, who despite having no political experience, was seen to be capable of leading Canada on both domestic/ economic and diplomatic/ trade war fronts.

 

This is certainly a loss for the Conservatives, who thought that they were certain to gain power after ten years in opposition, but lost it at the end despite improving their vote share and the number of seats.

 

However, it has been quite devastating for the New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh, whose tally has come down to just seven seats. Besides, the NDP vote share has come down by over 11 percent. Its seats came down from 25 to seven, while vote share came down from 17.8 percent to seven percent.

 

Possibly, had the NDP managed to retain its previous vote share, it might have provided an edge to the Conservatives. The NDP voters’ natural alternative choice is the Liberal Party, which appears to have taken most of the NDP votes. Justin Trudeau’s appeasement of radicals among the Sikhs, was also attributed to his feeling threatened by growing popularity of the NDP under Singh’s leadership among the Sikh population. That is the reason he tried to outdo the NDP when it came to pandering to the extremist sentiments.

 

The Liberal Party, in all probability, may fall short of the simple majority of 172 in a house of 343. It may manage to get the few needed required numbers from non-Conservative opposition parties. Even if it does not, it can comfortably manage to run a minority government, as it is highly unlikely that the opposition may come together.

 

Given the patriotic sentiment behind Carney, he should not be facing any serious challenge to run the government. But the same cannot be said about him leading the country in the face of tariff war with the US. He is leading the country at a time when its economy is in crisis coupled with “punitive” tariffs Trump has imposed on Canada, along with several other countries.

 

One of the biggest takeaways from this election is that both the Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilivere and the NDP leader Jagmeet Singh lost from their respective ridings.

 

The Liberals may have been re-elected, but the Conservatives’ optimism was not misplaced. They trailed behind Liberals by 14 seats only. They improved their tally by 25 seats. Besides, their vote share went up by about 8 percent over the previous General Elections.

 

While the Liberals are projected to win 168 seats against 160 in 2021, the Conservatives are projected to win 144, against 119 in 2021. The NDP is projected to win 7 seats coming down from 25 it had won in 2021. 

 

Had it not been the overwhelming patriotic sentiment that spread in the aftermath of Trump’s tariffs, Canadian election results might well have been quite different.