The Ukrainian people have been living through the harsh realities of war for almost two years now, since the Russian invasion that took place on February 24, 2022.
Amidst the geopolitical and ecological repercussions of the conflict, over 6.3 million Ukrainians have fled their homeland, while approximately 3.7 million are internally displaced.
While the war has undoubtedly left its mark on the global stage, it is the ordinary Ukrainians who have chosen to endure and fight within their borders that experience the daily strains and horrors of the ongoing conflict.
Challenges in Measuring Public Opinion:
As the war enters its third year, assessing the mood among Ukrainians becomes a complex task. The National Democratic Institute, in collaboration with the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, conducted a telephone survey from November 14-22, 2023, to gain insight into the experiences and perspectives of 2,516 Ukrainians. However, measuring public opinion in wartime Ukraine presents numerous challenges, with nearly 1 in 4 Ukrainians having been forced to move from their homes due to the conflict.
High Costs in Lives and Mental Health:
The toll on the lives and mental health of Ukrainians is striking. The survey revealed that since the war's onset, the loss of family and friends has significantly increased, with almost half of respondents reporting such losses by November 2023. The mental health costs are considerable, affecting nearly three-quarters of women and half of male respondents, leading to an alarming deterioration in their well-being. Lack of sleep, lost income, declining physical health, and family separation further compound the challenges faced by the population, suggesting that a post-war Ukraine will grapple with significant rehabilitation needs.
Shifting Perspectives on Negotiations:
Public sentiment on negotiating with Russia has undergone fluctuations since the war's beginning. Initially, a majority (59%) favoured negotiations in May 2022, but sentiment shifted dramatically by January 2023, with only 29% in favour. In November 2023, the percentage rose to 42%. However, the majority of Ukrainians remain opposed to seeking negotiations with Russia, given the current militarisation of the Russian state under Vladimir Putin. As casualties increase, the dynamics of public support for war are under scrutiny, particularly as Ukraine faces the challenge of recruiting new soldiers to replace the fallen and wounded.
Resistance to Territorial Concessions:
Ukrainians' sentiments against territorial concessions for immediate peace remain strong. The survey indicates a widespread belief that Ukraine's territorial integrity is sacred, making it challenging for Ukrainians to accept compromises. While acknowledging the sanctity of human life, there is a divide among Ukrainians regarding priorities: preserving territory or preserving lives. With Russia occupying approximately 18% of Ukraine, respondents strongly reject the idea of holding only the current territory for peace, revealing the complexity of negotiating a resolution that satisfies the majority.
Long-Term Outlook and Optimism:
Despite the expectation that the conflict will persist, Ukrainians remain surprisingly optimistic about their country's future. In November 2023, 77% expressed optimism, though fewer claimed to be "very optimistic." This optimism has persisted even as the war fatigue grows, reflecting a resilient spirit among Ukrainians who have turned suffering into hope.
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