The United States and Iran are set to begin talks in Oman. This marks a major shift, given years of hostility between the two nations.
However, confusion surrounds the talks. It is unclear whether they will be direct or through intermediaries. The US claims its Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, will meet Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. Iran insists the talks will be indirect, using a mediator.
Araghchi said, “It is as much an opportunity as it is a test. The ball is in America’s court.”
This early clash in messaging raises doubts about the talks. It does not help that the US and Israel have both hinted at military action if negotiations fail.
Donald Trump, now back in power, has taken a hard stance. After meeting Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he warned, “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon... if the talks fail, it will be a very bad day for Iran.”
Trump’s approach is clear: tough language and pressure. His style of diplomacy is transactional. Steve Witkoff, a former real estate developer, reflects this. Trump’s goals in the region are political and economic. He wants to expand the Abraham Accords, a deal that normalised ties between Israel and several Arab states.
In 2020, those deals were seen as a big success for Trump. Now, he wants Saudi Arabia to join. That would be a huge shift in Middle East politics. It would also isolate Iran further.
The US hopes to use trade and investment to build influence. Trump’s plan is to link economics with diplomacy. But this comes at a time when Iran is deeply vulnerable.
Iran’s economy is in crisis. Inflation is high. The currency has lost value. Poverty is rising. Years of sanctions and poor leadership have worsened the situation. Iran needs economic help. That gives the US leverage.
Iran’s position in the region has also weakened. In 2024, it lost key allies and leaders in groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. These military setbacks have hurt its ability to project power.
All this will affect how Iran negotiates. It may be more open to compromise. But Iran’s politics are complex. Hardliners still hold major power. If they feel the talks offer little, they may push for a more aggressive path.
One major problem is the lack of trust. Iran sees the US as unreliable. In 2018, Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal — known as the JCPOA. That deal had promised sanctions relief in exchange for limits on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Tehran believes the US broke its word. That makes new promises hard to accept.
China and Russia back Iran’s view. On April 8, they met with Iran in Moscow. China’s foreign ministry said the US caused the current crisis by quitting the JCPOA. They urged Washington to act with “mutual respect” and to stop using threats and pressure.
But Trump is doing the opposite. His message has focused on force. His support for Israel in Gaza has worsened tensions.
Iran sees US actions in Gaza and Yemen as hostile. Trump recently proposed clearing Palestinians from Gaza to make way for development. This caused outrage. Most people in the region support Palestinian rights. US backing for Israel damages its image in the Muslim world.
The conflict in Yemen is another flashpoint. The US has targeted the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Iran views this as part of a wider campaign against it.
These actions will make it harder to build trust. If Trump keeps pushing threats, Iran may walk away.
Inside Iran, politics are heating up. The country is divided between hardliners and reformists. The Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, leads the hardliners. Reformists want better ties with the West.
Last year, a reformist — Masoud Pezeshkian — won the presidency. At first, there was hope for change. But Pezeshkian later aligned with Khamenei. That hope faded.
In March 2025, two key reformists resigned. Economy minister Abdolnaser Hemmati and vice-president Mohammad Javad Zarif were forced out. Parliament, controlled by hardliners, pushed them aside.
This shows how fragile reformist power is. Iran’s government cannot speak with one voice. That weakens its position in talks.
But it also limits what it can offer. If hardliners oppose a deal, Iran may back out — even if officials want progress.
The talks in Oman come at a critical time. Both sides need a win. The US wants to stop Iran’s nuclear work. Iran wants relief from sanctions. But the road ahead is rocky.
Too much pressure could push Iran away. Too little could make it stall. Success will depend on careful diplomacy.
Trump’s team must offer more than threats. Iran must offer real transparency.
Most importantly, both sides must rebuild trust. Without it, the talks are likely to fail — and the region will face deeper instability.
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