It’s a classic policy reversal for Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu. From enacting a law in the recent past, barring people having more than two children from contesting municipal and panchayat elections, to asking couples to have more children, Naidu’s U-turn has been swift.
His latest call for larger families stems from the growing concerns over an imminent demographic shift, as reflected by the growing population of elderly people. The southern states, including AP, are witnessing a steady decline in the number of young people in the workforce and a rapidly increasing elderly population.
Naidu’s Tamil Nadu counterpart MK Stalin also made a similar appeal to people to have more children.
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in South Indian states stands at 1.6, which is much lower than the national average of 2.1. While this might seem like a stabilising factor for a country with over 1.4 billion people, the falling fertility rate is beginning to ring alarm bells about the long-term demographic consequences.
The percentage of people above 60 years of age in Andhra is 11% now and it is expected to go up to 19% by 2047.
In a bid to tackle this problem, the state government is already contemplating providing incentives to families with more children and encouraging couples to have more children. A new law is being proposed to make only those with more than two children eligible to contest in the local body elections.
The state is staring at a demographic crisis of the kind that is being experienced by Japan, China, and some European countries.
Changing urban lifestyles
The demographic shift is more a reflection of the changing lifestyles and priorities of the youth, particularly in urban areas. A key reason for the declining fertility rates in southern states, and across urban India, is the evolving mindset of young, educated couples. Today’s working youth are prioritising career development, financial security, and personal freedom over starting families. Many are postponing marriage and parenthood to focus on their careers.
Many young Indians are questioning whether it is responsible to bring children into a world that is becoming more uncertain and challenging by the day. This shift in societal priorities is contributing to the lower fertility rates in regions like the Telugu states and Tamil Nadu, where smaller families have become the norm.
Delimitation Blues
For politicians, however, it’s an entirely different set of considerations. The population-based delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies, slated for 2026, is hanging like a Damocles Sword over the heads of the politicians of southern states as they face the prospect of losing their strength in the Parliament.
The key question that is being asked is why the South should be penalised for controlling population growth and concentrating on development. The irony is that the progressive policies of the southern states are harming them while those states that have been unable to control their population over decades stand to gain from the delimitation.
Post-delimitation, the total seats in the South are projected to come down to 103 from the existing 129, a prospect that could trigger mass protests and severe public resentment. In contrast, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh together will have a total of 222 MPs.
Another study had projected that four northern states–Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh—would collectively gain 22 seats while four southern states of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu would lose 17 seats.
Punishing performing states
It must be pointed out that southern states account for just 18% of the country’s population but contribute 35% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It would be a travesty of justice if such progressive states were put at a disadvantage in the delimitation exercise.
The North Indian states have consistently ignored the Central Government’s population control measures but now stand to benefit in terms of representation in the Parliament.
In the present circumstances, the delimitation, along with a smaller share of central funds to states on the basis of the population, can be unfair to southern states where the economic situation has improved dramatically since the turn of the 21st century.
It will also affect the division of seats reserved for SCs and STs in each state. With the total number of Lok Sabha seats frozen for almost 50 years, there are now wide discrepancies between states on the average number of electors represented by each MP.
The delimitation exercise in 2026 would presumably seek to redraw the boundaries so that each parliamentary constituency has roughly the same population. This would mean an increase in seats in states with high populations.
Given the political motives of the current dispensation at the Centre, there are genuine apprehensions that the delimitation could lead to unequal representation in the Parliament.
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