As of now, it looks like a direct fight between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress in Haryana. At the same time, there are some important marginal players/alliances as well. Besides, there is the Aam Aadmi Party, which is trying to establish a foothold in the state.
The Indian National Lok Dal has aligned with the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Jannayak Janata Party has aligned with the Azad Samaj Party headed by Chandra Shekhar Azad, which is trying to emerge as an alternative to the BSP.
The release of Delhi Chief Minister and AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal from jail is believed to raise the graph of the party in Haryana. Kejriwal originally hails from Bhiwani district in Haryana and is described as “son of the soil”. Though it is not the first time that he may be playing the ‘son of the soil’ card in Haryana, this time his party hopes to capitalise on it, given a sweeping majority in the neighbouring states of Punjab and Delhi.
There is no doubt that it will be ‘advantage-AAP’ in Haryana after Kejriwal’s release. He is a powerful campaigner and has always had his hand on the pulse of the people when it comes to building a narrative. Besides, being a Haryanvi himself, he will have an additional advantage as compared to Punjab and Delhi, where he has already done exceptionally well despite being an “outsider”.
Improved performance still not guaranteed
The jury is still out as to whom the AAP’s likely improved performance will impact, whether it will help the Congress to weaken the ruling BJP or it will help the BJP by dividing the anti-BJP vote.
One opinion is that the AAP’s main target will remain the urban areas and the powerful trading community spread across the state. Kejriwal belongs to the same community and he has been capitalizing on his identity in Delhi. Whether he will be able to repeat the Delhi performance in Haryana is too difficult to predict. In case of AAP manages to target the urban and trading community votes, it will straightway be a disadvantage for the BJP, as its primary support base remains in urban areas and among the trading community, everywhere including Haryana.
However, in the neighbouring Punjab, the AAP performed exceptionally well, in the rural belts also. The dominant Jatt/farming community overwhelmingly voted for the AAP in the 2022 assembly elections. IN case AAP manages to appeal to a section of such voters particularly in the constituencies falling along the Punjab border, it will be to the disadvantage of the Congress.
Haryana is similar to its sister state
The situation in Haryana right now looks similar to that of Punjab in 2017. Like the Akali-BJP alliance was in power there for ten years, the BJP has been in power in Haryana for the last ten years also. There is an element of anti-incumbency which is natural after a ten-year term. Like in Punjab then, the Congress had handed over the entire command to Capt Amarinder Singh, then the most popular leader in the state, in Haryana, the Congress handed over complete command and control to former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda.
AAP made its first foray into Punjab assembly elections in 2017. It won 20 assembly seats, while the Congress got 77. The Congress’ impressive performance had much to do with the AAP surge as it badly impacted the then SAD-BJP alliance and took away most of its (the alliance) votes.
In case the AAP manages to cut into more votes of the BJP than the Congress, then it might well be a repeat of ‘Punjab-2017’ in Haryana also with Congress not only winning but getting an emphatic majority.
However, the two states may have some similarities, but they are not the same. The situation and the circumstances are entirely different. One thing is for sure Kejriwal’s release from jail while giving a boost to the AAP has only added to the element of uncertainty as far as final outcome is concerned.
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