with-delhi-in-its-grip-punjab-may-not-be-very-far-for-bjp

The Bharatiya Janata Party finally managed to break the 27-year-old jinx in Delhi after storming to power with an emphatic victory over the Aam Aadmi Party winning 48 of the 70 seats. The AAP’s BJP worries do not end in Delhi alone, they are bound to extend to Punjab as well.

 

The AAP is a nascent party. Although in Punjab it has 94 legislators, most of them have come from the Congress, the Shiromani Akali Dal or the Bharatiya Janata Party. Besides, there is no ideological glue that can make the legislators stick together for a long time. As an overwhelming majority of legislators have come from other parties, there is no guarantee that they will not ditch the party if they see its fortunes sinking in Punjab.

 

For the first three years of being in power, the AAP central leadership exerted too much control over the government and the administration in Punjab.

 

Although Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has managed to establish some control over the administration and the officers, most of the postings to important positions were ordered from the “centre”.

 

The message had already percolated down the political and administrative line that the “centre” was in control of things more than the “state”.

 

In the process, Mann could not build up a team of reliable legislators/ leaders on whom he could bank upon. He was not allowed to do so, not directly though. The message to the legislators was clear as to where the strings were being pulled up from. Most of them tried to maintain neutrality. Besides, Mann was also not very keen to meet most of them.

 

This provides a “very fertile” ground for the BJP to build up the party in Punjab. With no serious ideological commitment towards the AAP, as the party has no clear ideology,I ts leaders and legislators are more vulnerable to poaching from the other parties.

 

Moreover, when most of these legislators and leaders have joined the AAP from different parties, jumping the ship once again will not be difficult for them.

 

The BJP already has a very strong presence in the urban areas from where it can build up further. It had an impressive vote share of about 19 percent in the 2024 General Elections. It led in 24 assembly segments. Coupled with its governments at the centre and in neighbouring Haryana, BJP’s strength cannot be underestimated.

 

Also read: More than BJP victory, it is AAP’s defeat with massive implications

 

The party is likely to improve it further. Besides, the BJP is the only party that has not got “a chance” to rule Punjab on its own. The BJP can convince people of Punjab to give it a chance like they gave to the AAP.

 

The collective hostile resistance towards the BJP, exhibited by the ultra-left farmers’ organisations, with tacit support from the ultra-right radicals as both see the saffron party as a common enemy, may not last for long.

 

There is already a realisation among the people that there is nothing against the BJP as a party. The mere allegations that it was trying to interfere in the Sikh institutions do not cut much ice among the masses.

 

Moreover, if the people of Punjab can accept the Congress after the Operation Bluestar and the 1984 anti-Sikh riots, they have nothing against the BJP to remain hostile towards it. It is a matter of narrative, which may not take long to change.

 

Another important factor that may go in favour of the BJP in Punjab is the realisation among people that only a friendly government at the centre can bail out Punjab from its financial crisis. Punjab is already burdened with a debt of Rs 3 lakh crores, which is likely to touch Rs 4 lakh crores by the end of the term of the current AAP government.

 

While the Congress is celebrating AAP’s Delhi defeat in the hope of defeating the party in Punjab, the party will have to beware of an aggressive BJP, which of course will not stop in Delhi. The Congress presence in Delhi may have helped the BJP to win, the party may have to pay a heavy price in the long run in Punjab, as the state will now be on the saffron party’s radar.

 

If the BJP gets strengthened in Punjab, it will be at the cost of all the parties, and may be more at the cost of the Congress.

 

While the Congress leadership in Punjab is quite confident and upbeat in the belief that the formation of a Congress government in the state in 2027 is now a foregone conclusion, the BJP rank and file does not lag behind in confidence.

 

There are still two more years left for the assembly elections in Punjab, if everything goes well for the AAP. Two years is a very long time in politics. But it has certainly triggered a race already between the Congress and the BJP.

 

While the Congress leadership believes that the Congress is the natural choice and the only alternative to the AAP, the BJP believes that if it can do it in Delhi, it can do it in Punjab as well.

 

Punjab is surrounded by Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir. Haryana already has a BJP government. Although there are National Conference and Congress governments in JK and HP respectively, the two states have substantial presence of BJP supporters.

 

The BJP has also managed to do very well in the Punjabi/ Sikh dominated assembly segments in Delhi. This was despite an aggressive campaign run by the former Delhi Sikh Gurdwara Management Committee president and a senior Akali leader Paramjit Singh Sarna against the BJP and subtly in favour of the AAP.

 

The BJP has got three Sikh legislators elected in Delhi. Its impact will definitely extend to Punjab, particularly among the urban Sikh population, which has considerable presence in cities like Ludhiana, Jalandhar, Patiala and Amritsar.

 

Also, the way the BJP has pursued and followed the Delhi anti-Sikh riots’ cases and reopened investigations with likelihood of culprits getting punished, it is certain to have a positive impact in Punjab. The day is not that far, when the BJP will be an equal stakeholder in the state. This in all likelihood is going to happen in 2027.

 

Above all, the BJP has mastered the art of fighting the elections, where it has high stakes. As of now, it will be unimaginable for any other political party to compete with the party in managing elections, mobilising and utilising all available and usable resources. And the party does not have any dearth of resources needed to win the elections with the most popular leader Narendra Modi as its mascot with a cult following that surpasses all political leaders of the country, so far.