Northwest India has experienced an unusually active monsoon in August, a pattern expected to continue into the first week of September. Meteorologists warned on Thursday of extremely heavy rainfall over Gujarat until at least Friday, as a deep depression over Saurashtra wreaks havoc in the state, causing severe flooding.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that this deep depression is likely to intensify into Cyclonic Storm Asna over the northeast Arabian Sea by Friday.
“The deep depression over Saurashtra and Kutch is very likely to intensify into a cyclone by Friday and continue causing extremely heavy rainfall in isolated places of Saurashtra and Kutch until then, decreasing thereafter,” the IMD said.
Rare cyclonic formation over land
A senior IMD official explained that the deep depression has been lingering over Saurashtra for several days and is now finding favourable conditions to strengthen into a cyclone over the Arabian Sea.
“The ocean provides the system with the energy to refuel, and low wind shear combined with a favourable Madden Julian Oscillation position creates optimal circumstances for its intensification,” said the official.
The development of cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea in August is a rare phenomenon. According to the IMD, from 1891 to 2023, only three cyclonic storms have formed in August over the Arabian Sea, in 1976, 1964, and 1944.
The 1976 cyclone, for instance, originated over Odisha, moved west-northwestwards, entered the Arabian Sea, followed a looping track, and eventually weakened near the Oman coast.
Similarly, in 1944, a cyclone intensified after entering the Arabian Sea but later weakened over water, while a short-lived cyclone formed near the South Gujarat coast in 1964 and weakened soon after.
Despite the rarity, this isn’t unprecedented. "There have been two previous instances of such systems forming over land and developing into cyclones over the sea, including a depression that formed over Saurashtra and intensified into a cyclone over the Arabian Sea," the official added.
Intense rainfall across multiple regions
India’s weather is being shaped by two significant systems currently: the deep depression over Saurashtra and a low-pressure system over east India. Heavy rains have swept across various regions, including Delhi-NCR, which experienced several spells of heavy rain due to a monsoon trough near Delhi.
The IMD has forecast very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall over Odisha, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, and Mahe in the coming days. North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and Telangana are also likely to experience heavy to very heavy rain over the next two to three days due to the low-pressure system over the central and adjoining north Bay of Bengal.
In Gujarat, rainfall has already resulted in severe flooding in parts of Saurashtra. The IMD warned that heavy rainfall would persist in these areas, with intensity gradually reducing post-Friday as the depression either weakens or moves further away from land.
Monsoon to intensify in September
Northwest India, including Delhi-NCR, is expected to witness more rain from September 1 onwards.
Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Climate and Meteorology at Skymet Weather, said, "Rainfall will reduce over the next two days in northwest India. However, the rain will pick up again from September 1 when the monsoon trough shifts back to its normal position from its current southward displacement. Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is expected in the region on September 2 and 3."
Excess rainfall recorded in August
Since the beginning of the monsoon on June 1, India has recorded 7% excess rainfall, with 17% excess over central India, 2% excess over northwest India, and 18% excess over Peninsular India.
However, east and northeast India reported an 11% deficiency. August alone saw 15.9% excess rainfall nationwide, with northwest India witnessing a substantial 31.4% excess.
Despite the overall positive rainfall figures, several regions continue to grapple with rainfall deficits. Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh reported a 27% deficiency, while Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Haryana, Chandigarh, and Delhi subdivisions experienced 29%, 22%, and 16% deficiencies, respectively.
Heavy rain to persist
“Monsoon conditions are extremely active across the country,” said M Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD. "There are two active weather systems, one over Rajasthan and another over Gangetic West Bengal. Gujarat is already facing extremely heavy rain, and this is likely to continue. East India will also see very heavy rain. Sporadic rain and thundershowers are expected over Delhi-NCR, Haryana, and Punjab during the week, with rainfall activity increasing."
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