At least seven of the 13 parliamentary constituencies, more than half the number, may witness five cornered contests in Punjab in the General Elections scheduled on June one.
The four-cornered contest between the Aam Aadmi Party, the Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Shiromani Akali Dal in all 13 constituencies is a foregone conclusion, with each party having significant and substantial claim everywhere.
But in seven constituencies, which include Jalandhar, Hoshiarpur, Anandpur Sahib, Khadoor Sahib, Sangrur, Faridkot and Bathinda, there will be the “fifth” serious contender in each of the constituencies.
While the Bahujan Samaj Party is likely to make it a five-cornered contest in Jalandhar, Anandpur Sahib and Hoshiarpur, the Shiromani Akali Dal-Amritsar is likely going to be a significant player in Sangrur, which it represents currently, Khadoor Sahib, Bathinda and Faridkot.
In Jalandhar, it will be a contest between the BJP, which has got the sitting MP Sushil Kumar Rinku who defected from AAP in its fold, the AAP, the Congress, the Shiromani Akali Dal and the Bahujan Samaj Party.
In 2019, when the AAP had been completely reduced to margins, it was a three-cornered contest in Jalandhar between Chaudhary Santokh of the Congress, Charanjit Singh Atwal of the Akali-BJP alliance and Balwinder Kumar of the BSP.
While it was a close contest between Santokh and Atwal, as the margin of victory was less than twenty thousand votes, the BSP also polled over two lakh votes from here.
A by-election was necessitated in Jalandhar in 2023 after the death of the sitting MP Chaudhary.
It was a four-cornered contest between the AAP, the Congress, the Akali-BJP alliance and the BJP.
Akalis broke up an alliance with the BJP in 2021 on the issue of farmers’ laws and later aligned with the BSP for the assembly elections.
They again aligned with the party for the 2023 by-election.
So far, the BSP and the Akalis have not announced any fresh alliance.
In all probability, they look like going to be separate.
That makes the contest a ‘five-cornered’ one, as all the parties in the fray have a significant chunk of votes. Jalandhar may be very difficult to predict, although it has traditionally been a Congress stronghold.
In Hoshiarpur also, the BSP is going to be an important player, having got 1.28 lakh votes in 2019.
Anandpur Sahib will also likely be witnessing the five-cornered contest for the same reason between the AAP, the Congress, the BJP, the Akalis and the BSP. In 2019, Manish Tewari of the Congress won from here polling 4.28 lakh votes, while his nearest rival Prem Singh Chandumajra of the Akali-BJP alliance got 3.81 lakh votes.
The BSP candidate Sodhi Vikram Singh got 1.46 lakh votes, while the AAP candidate Narinder Singh Shergill got only 53,000 votes.
Currently, all the nine assembly segments falling in the Anandpur Sahib parliamentary constituency are represented by the AAP.
Sangrur is going to be the most-watched parliamentary constituency in Punjab. If the AAP is in power in Punjab it owes a lot to Sangrur.
It was the only constituency in the country from which the party won in 2019 with Bhagwant Mann, the current Chief Minister, beating the trend and winning by a huge margin.
However, in a strange turn of events, in the by-elections, necessitated after the resignation of Mann as he became the Chief Minister, held in June 2022, the party lost to Simranjit Singh Mann of the radical group Shiromani Akali Dal-Amritsar, which openly espouses the cause of Khalistan.
Simranjit Singh Mann won by a narrow margin of about six thousand votes only.
In fact, the by-election proved to be a five-cornered one, between the SAD-A, the AAP, the Congress, the SAD-B and the BJP.
Interestingly the SAD-B led by Sukhbir Badal stood fifth, after the BJP, in this by-election. It had fielded Kamaldeep Kaur Rajoana, sister of Balwant Rajona, a convict in the Beant Singh assassination case.
Khadoor Sahib, constituency, may also witness a five-cornered contest this time. Although a predominantly remote constituency, there are a few urban pockets also, which may deliver some votes to the BJP.
It is going to be a contest between the Congress, the AAP, the Shiromani Akali Dal-Badal, the BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal-Amritsar.
In Bathinda, it is again the four mainstream parties, with at least one prominent independent candidate, who may eventually contest on a SAD-A ticket making it a five-cornered contest.
The particular candidate is known for his radical ideology and proximity to Simranjit Singh Mann.
The seventh constituency likely to witness a five-cornered contest, is Faridkot, along the lines of Sangrur.
While a five-cornered contest, in at least seven constituencies looks imminent, however, sometimes it eventually ends up in just ‘a three-cornered’ contest only, with a couple of contenders, sometimes even serious ones, getting knocked down in the “crowd”.
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