A recent study by the World Weather Attribution group has revealed that climate change intensified the deadly landslides in Kerala's Wayanad district by 10%, attributing the increased rainfall to human-caused warming.
The researchers, hailing from India, Sweden, the US, and the UK, employed high-resolution climate models to assess the impact of climate change on rainfall in the region.
Their findings indicate a 10% increase in rainfall intensity due to climate change, with a predicted further 4% rise if global temperatures surge by 2°C above the 1850-1900 average.
The scientists caution that such events will become more frequent as the climate continues to warm, aligning with the growing body of evidence on extreme rainfall in a warming world.
The atmosphere's capacity to hold moisture increases by approximately 7% for every 1°C rise in global temperature, contributing to heavier downpours.
The Earth's global surface temperature has already risen by around 1.3°C due to escalating greenhouse gas emissions, leading to worsening extreme weather events worldwide.
While the relationship between land cover changes and landslide risk in Wayanad remains unclear, factors like quarrying and reduced forest cover may have increased susceptibility to landslides during heavy rainfall.
Other researchers have linked the Wayanad landslides to a combination of forest cover loss, mining, and prolonged rain followed by heavy precipitation.
Experts warn that the warming Arabian Sea is leading to extremely heavy rainfall in Kerala, increasing the risk of landslides.
Kerala is particularly vulnerable, with 10 out of the top 30 landslide-prone districts in India located in the state, including Wayanad.
Studies have shown that landslide hotspots in Kerala are concentrated in the Western Ghats region, with plantation areas being particularly susceptible.
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