There’s a growing global shift towards adopting plant-based diets, for not only their health benefits, but also a reduction in the world population’s carbon footprint.
However, abandoning meat-based foods will also lead to lowering of agricultural labour by up to nearly 30 per cent by 2030, the equivalent of nearly 100 million full-time jobs, indicating a need for governments to form policies that support a fair transition for workers, says a study.
Researchers, including those from the UK’s University of Oxford, said the study is the first of its kind that involved a country-level assessment of how a change in diets can impact jobs across 179 countries.
The team combined data on labour requirements for crops and livestock with models of global food production to understand how dietary patterns, including vegetarian and vegan diets, would affect the agricultural workforce.
Published in The Lancet Planetary Health journal, the study shows that while countries practising a livestock-heavy agriculture would see the highest fall in labour demand, lower-income countries may require as many as 18-56 million more workers to grow fruits, vegetables, legumes and nuts.
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“Dietary change doesn’t just affect our health and the planet – it also has a big impact on people’s livelihoods. Moving away from meat-heavy diets reduces the need for labour in animal production, but increases demand in horticulture and food services,” lead researcher Marco Springmann, senior researcher at the Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, said.
The researchers also found that changes to the world’s agriculture workforce could slash labour costs by USD 290-995 billion per year, translating to around 0.2 per cent to 0.6 per cent of the global gross domestic product (GDP).
While dietary shifts can result in efficiency gains, the researchers said policy and planning are needed to ensure that transitions are fair.
Measures such as retraining, redeployment and investment in horticultural production will be crucial to support workers and rural communities as food systems evolve, they said.
“Consistent strategies and political support will be needed to enable just transitions both into and out of agricultural labour,” Springmann said.
Switching to a plant-based diet, which favours fruits, vegetables, legumes and nuts and small portions of meat and dairy, is among the recommendations described by the United Nations for reducing one’s carbon footprint to meet the Sustainable Development Goals 2030.
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