The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth projection for India upward to 6.8 percent for this year, marking a 0.3 percent increase from its previous update in January 2024.
According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on Tuesday, India's growth is anticipated to remain robust at 6.8 percent in 2024 and 6.5 percent in 2025, driven by sustained strength in domestic demand and a growing working-age population.
In its earlier January 2024 update, the IMF had forecasted India's economy to grow at 6.5 percent in both 2024 and 2025.
India maintains its position as the top performer among large economies for this year and the next, with China following closely at 4.6 percent in 2024 and 4.1 percent in 2025.
The IMF predicts global output growth to maintain a steady pace of 3.2 percent in 2024 and 2025, consistent with the rate observed in 2023.
"The global economy remains remarkably resilient, with growth holding steady as inflation returns to target," the IMF stated.
Despite concerns of a possible recession, the world managed to avoid one, with the banking system proving largely resilient, and major emerging market economies avoiding sudden stops, according to the WEO.
Regarding crude oil prices, the IMF forecasts a 2.5 percent year-over-year decline, with futures markets indicating an average of $78.60 per barrel in 2024, further dropping to $67.50 in 2029. The IMF sees the risks to this outlook as "balanced."
"Upside price risks could arise from an escalation of the Middle East conflict and attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Downside risks could arise from a slowdown in Chinese oil demand and strong non-OPEC supply growth, possibly coupled with a rise in OPEC+ oil supply to regain market share," the IMF added.
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