India is expected to gradually scale down crude oil purchases from Russia following an understanding with the United States linked to trade tariff relief, though some imports will continue in the near term due to limited alternatives for certain refiners, sources said.
US President Donald Trump on Friday signed an executive order withdrawing a 25 per cent duty on all Indian imports, citing New Delhi’s commitment to stop buying Russian oil. However, Indian refiners have not received any formal directive to halt purchases and have instead been informally advised to begin tapering imports, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
Most refiners are expected to honour existing contracts, typically placed six to eight weeks in advance, but avoid placing fresh orders thereafter. State-run refiners such as Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL) had already stopped buying Russian crude following US sanctions last year. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) are likely to wind down purchases, sources said.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India’s largest buyer of Russian oil, which paused imports late last year after sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, is also expected to cease purchases once a resumption cargo of 1,50,000 barrels is delivered in the coming weeks.
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An exception is likely to be Nayara Energy, which remains heavily dependent on Russian crude. With Rosneft holding a 49.13 per cent stake, Nayara has been sanctioned by the European Union and the UK, limiting its ability to source oil from other suppliers. As a result, it is expected to continue purchases from non-sanctioned Russian entities for now.
India’s crude imports from Russia have already been declining. They averaged 1.2 million barrels per day in December 2025, down from a peak of 2.1 million barrels per day in May 2023, and fell further to 1.1 million barrels per day in January. With the new US understanding, imports could halve in the coming months, sources added.
India meets nearly 90 per cent of its crude oil needs through imports, and discounted Russian supplies have helped lower import costs since Western sanctions were imposed on Moscow in 2022.
“Russian volumes remain largely locked in for the next 8–10 weeks and continue to be economically critical for India’s complex refining system,” said Sumit Ritolia of Kpler, adding that a full disengagement was unlikely in the near term.
Prashant Vasisht of Icra said replacement of Russian crude would raise India’s import bill by less than 2 per cent, with alternatives available from the US and potentially Venezuela.
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