India’s exports held steady through a tariff-heavy 2025 as exporters adjusted to steep US duties by diversifying markets, a strategy that has helped sustain growth momentum and is expected to support expansion into 2026.
The year was marked by the imposition of a 50 per cent tariff by the US, India’s largest export destination, alongside continuing global disruptions ranging from geopolitical conflicts to supply-chain constraints. Yet, Indian exporters showed resilience, adapting quickly to changing trade conditions.
A senior commerce ministry official described the trend succinctly, saying, “trade is like water, it finds its own course”.
Merchandise exports climbed from USD 276.5 billion in 2020 to USD 453.3 billion in 2022 before easing to USD 389.5 billion in 2023. Growth resumed in 2024, with exports rising to USD 443 billion, while shipments touched USD 407 billion during January–November 2025.
Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said India’s exports of goods and services reached a record USD 825.25 billion in 2024-25, reflecting over six per cent year-on-year growth, with momentum continuing into the current fiscal year.
“Based on current trends, India's exports are poised to deliver solid growth in 2026 as well. Notably, three free trade agreements, UK, Oman, and New Zealand, will enter into force next year, unlocking enhanced market access for both goods and services exports,” Agrawal maintained.
Exports to the US were impacted immediately after higher tariffs took effect in August, with shipments dipping in September and October. However, exports rebounded sharply in November, rising 22.61 per cent to USD 6.98 billion, suggesting early signs of adjustment.
Exporters remain cautious amid global uncertainty and are looking towards early conclusion of a proposed bilateral trade agreement with the US, as well as progress on a trade pact with the European Union.
The World Trade Organization has projected global trade growth of 2.4 per cent in 2025 but warned of a sharp slowdown to 0.5 per cent in 2026, citing policy uncertainty and higher tariffs.
“With higher tariffs now in place and trade policy still highly uncertain, frontloading of purchases is expected to unwind as accumulated inventories are drawn down and as GDP growth slows,” the WTO said.
Also read: Trump tariff will hit half of Indian exports to US
The government said it remains optimistic that policy interventions will help exporters navigate these challenges.
“The government continues to monitor India's exports and take steps to promote them. It continues to work to mitigate the impact of the US tariff measures on Indian exports through a comprehensive multi-pronged strategy,” an official said.
Measures include a Rs 25,060 crore export promotion mission, additional collateral-free credit of up to Rs 20,000 crore, extended export credit tenors and leveraging free trade agreements.
Over the past five years, India has concluded or implemented several FTAs, including with Australia, the UAE, Mauritius, Oman, the UK, EFTA and New Zealand.
Experts said India’s export outlook for 2026 is increasingly driven by structural shifts. Rudra Kumar Pandey, Partner at Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas & Co, said electronics exports have emerged as a key growth driver.
“Electronics have emerged as a key driver, with exports rising nearly 39 per cent in November, reflecting sustained FDI-led capacity creation and deeper integration into global value chains,” Pandey said.
Federation of Indian Export Organisations Director General Ajay Sahai said exporters are well positioned despite challenges.
“With continued policy support and market diversification, we remain confident of a strong and stable export outlook in the coming year,” Sahai said.
He cautioned that geopolitical tensions, protectionism, exchange-rate volatility and high logistics costs could weigh on exporters, particularly MSMEs.
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