India’s exports to the United States have contracted, quite expectedly, after the US administration hiked tariffs on Indian products to 50 per cent in August, but India’s shipments to non-US destinations have remained strong, says an October report by a leading ratings agency.
According to the report by Crisil, merchandise exports to the US had shown a de-growth by 11.9 per cent to USD 5.5 billion in September. In August, they had shown a 7 per cent growth.
However, the agency noted that without the frontloading of shipments ahead of the tariff hike, the fall would have been sharper.
Interestingly, in contrast, exports to non-US markets expanded by 10.9 per cent in September, as against a 6.6 per cent growth in August 2025, the report said.
Also Read: Higher exports in August cut India’s trade deficit by half
India is currently engaged in free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations with a host of countries including the EU, New Zealand, Oman, Australia, and the UAE, to expand its export basket after trade tensions with the US escalated.
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has projected that global merchandise trade volumes will increase by 2.4 per cent in 2025, compared to 2.8 per cent in 2024.
Crisil has cautioned in its report that a broader slowdown in global growth should be expected, given India’s merchandise exports facing headwinds from the US tariff hikes.
However, despite the challenges, Crisil expects India’s current account deficit (CAD) to remain within manageable limits, supported by strong services exports, steady remittance inflows, and easing crude oil prices.
The CAD will be around 1 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal, up from 0.6 per cent in the previous year, it said in its forecast.
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