India is set to become an $8 trillion economy by 2034, significantly influencing global economics and geopolitics, according to Shaurya Doval, BJP leader and founder of the think-tank India Foundation.
In a discussion with PTI editors, Doval highlighted India's rapid economic growth, noting, "As we head into the next 25 years, we are going to see India pivot much of the world in terms of its economics and its geopolitics, and that's great news for India and Indians."
Doval pointed out that India’s economic progress has been remarkable. "It took us 60 years, the British left us with an economy of $30 billion. By 2007, we became a trillion dollars...it took us like three generations. From 2007 to 2014, we went to $2 trillion. Today, we are at $4 trillion (dollars) and this is despite Covid," he said.
He added, "What was achieved in the last 75 years, $4 trillion, will be achieved in the next 10 years alone, and by 2034, we will be an $8 trillion economy."
However, Doval cautioned that India may face challenges in exports as global dynamics shift. "More countries are focusing on building their own capacities, particularly after the Covid experience," he said. "This for India is a little bit of a problem because we need goods and services in our trade to grow our economy. So, we are going to face significant headwinds as far as our ability to export is concerned."
Doval also drew comparisons to China’s economic strategy, noting that "Fortunately for us, we have got the advantage that we have a large market." He praised the Modi government's efforts to integrate 500 million people into the formal economy, which he believes will bolster domestic economic growth.
He identified energy dependence as a key challenge, stating, "To sustain an 8-to-10 per cent growth rate, the dependence on energy imports that exists at present has to be reduced. The energy dependence is increasing, not decreasing. Even though we are doing so much, in the last 10 years, it’s gone up despite the fact that we have tried so much import substitution by using solar, green whatever we could do."
Doval also raised concerns about potential geopolitical conflicts impacting India's economic trajectory. "We are on the right path but if the world gets sucked into some kind of conflict, which spreads from unintended consequences, and either reaches India’s shores or sucks India into it, that would I think delay or maybe even offset our economic trajectory," he said.
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