Complying with the US’ directive to stop Russian crude oil purchases, India is set to reduce its direct imports of crude oil from Moscow by December this year.
Indian refiners, accounting for more than half of the country’s imports of crude oil from Russia, are expected to slash their imports after the latest round of sanctions on two of Moscow’s largest exporters, Rosneft and Lukeoil, effective November 21, say analysts.
Data by maritime intelligence firm Kpler points to imports by top importer Reliance Industries Ltd, which has a long-term supply contract with Rosneft, and two other state-controlled refiners – Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, a joint venture of steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal’s Mittal Energy and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) – which together accounted for more than half of the 1.8 million barrels of Russian crude oil imported in the first half of 2025.
Kpler says they have all announced plans to suspend future imports, which will trigger a sharp decline in Russian arrivals in December and a gradual recovery projected through early 2026 via intermediaries and alternative trading routes.
However, Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery, which partially owned by Rosneft and already under EU sanctions, is likely to maintain its Russian crude intake.
Russia remained India’s top crude supplier in October, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia, said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) at Kpler.
Before the US sanctions were imposed, Russian shipments to India reached 1.6-1.8 million barrels per day (mbd). Declines were observed post-October 21, as refiners avoided potential US OFAC exposure, Ritolia added.
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Having said that, analysts maintain that Russian barrels are unlikely to disappear entirely, since future imports will rely on more complex logistics and trading arrangements.
For now, Indian refiners are increasing procurement from the Middle East, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the United States to offset reduced Russian flows.
In fact, US crude imports hit 5,68,000 barrels per day (kbd) in October, the highest since March 2021, driven by economics and arbitrage opportunities rather than sanctions. Flows are expected to normalise to 250-350 kbd in December and January.
“Most Indian refiners are expected to comply with US sanctions and halt or reduce direct crude purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil. This is likely to trigger a sharp decline in Russian crude import in December, followed by a gradual recovery through mid-to-late Q1 2026, as new trading intermediaries emerge and alternative routes are established,” opined Ritolia, adding that Nayara Energy’s 400 kbd Vadinar refinery is unlikely to alter its current procurement pattern, as it is already almost entirely reliant on Russian crude.
“However, higher freight costs could limit the scale of substitution by eroding arbitrage opportunities,” he added.
While near-term Russian imports may dip starting in December, Russian barrels will continue reaching India through intermediaries, he said.
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