Stock markets are expected to take cues this week from evolving geopolitical tensions, movements in crude oil prices, and the ongoing quarterly earnings season, according to market analysts.
Experts noted that developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict will remain a crucial factor, particularly because of their direct influence on global crude oil prices and investor sentiment. Additionally, trading patterns of foreign institutional investors are likely to play a significant role in shaping market direction.
Ajit Mishra, SVP (Research) at Religare Broking Ltd, stated that geopolitical signals tied to the conflict will be closely watched, especially as the current ceasefire between the two nations is scheduled to expire on April 22.
On the domestic front, attention is shifting toward the Q4 FY26 earnings season. Initial reactions are expected from major banking players such as HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, followed by results from key firms including HCL Technologies, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Havells, IndusInd Bank, and Shriram Finance.
Recently, HDFC Bank reported an 8.04% increase in consolidated net profit for the March quarter, reaching ₹20,350.76 crore, while also cautioning about near-term risks stemming from the West Asia situation affecting certain small-business borrowers. Meanwhile, ICICI Bank posted a 9.28% rise in consolidated net profit to ₹14,755 crore, supported by a sharp decline in provisioning.
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Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, emphasised that a wave of Q4 earnings reports, along with US macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments, will drive market sentiment in the coming days.
Market participants will also closely monitor the progress of negotiations between the US and Iran, focusing more on long-term resolution signals rather than short-term developments due to their broader implications for global capital flows and risk assets. According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, stability or easing in crude oil prices could act as a strong positive factor for equities and the overall macroeconomic outlook.
Last week, benchmark indices showed strong performance, with the BSE Sensex rising 943.29 points (1.21%) and the NSE Nifty gaining 302.95 points (1.25%).
On the geopolitical front, tensions escalated after the US and Israel carried out strikes on Iran on February 28. In response, Tehran significantly restricted movement through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route that handles about one-fifth of global oil supply. Although Iran briefly reopened the passage for commercial shipping on Friday, it announced another closure on Saturday, citing alleged violations of prior understandings by the US.
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