The Indian rupee staged a strong recovery on Thursday, rebounding 49 paise from its record closing low to settle at 96.37 against the US dollar, supported by a decline in crude oil prices and likely intervention by the central bank.
Forex traders said the domestic currency benefited from easing geopolitical tensions and softer oil prices, although market participants remain cautious about continuing geopolitical risks and the sensitivity of crude prices in the global market.
Traders also pointed out that the one-year forward market rate for the rupee had touched the psychologically significant 100/USD mark on Wednesday, signalling that currency markets continue to price in a weakening trend for the USD/INR pair over the coming 12 months.
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 96.25 against the dollar. During the session, it touched an intraday high of 96.05 and a low of 96.60 before finally settling at 96.37, marking a gain of 49 paise over the previous close.
On Wednesday, the rupee had plunged to an all-time low of 96.95 before ending the session at a record closing low of 96.86 against the greenback. According to Dilip Parmar, the rupee’s recovery was aided by a pullback in crude oil prices amid tentative signs of easing geopolitical tensions, along with active intervention by the central bank.
He added that investors will now closely monitor geopolitical developments and the upcoming monetary policy review by the Reserve Bank of India.
Parmar further noted that from a technical perspective, the spot USD/INR pair has strong support around the 95.74 level, while immediate resistance is seen near 96.50.
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Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the US currency against a basket of six major global currencies, was trading 0.22 per cent higher at 99.30. Brent Crude prices, considered a key indicator for India’s import bill and currency movement, slipped 0.75 per cent to USD 104.23 per barrel in futures trading.
A report by DBS Bank economists Radhika Rao and Philip Wee observed that the rupee has been undergoing a sharp depreciation phase, weakening by more than 6 per cent against the dollar in calendar year 2026 and repeatedly hitting fresh record lows.
The report added that DBS Bank has revised its USD/INR forecast range upward to 95-100 for the remainder of 2026. On the domestic equity front, the BSE Sensex fell 135.03 points to close at 75,183.36, while the Nifty 50 ended almost flat at 23,654.70.
According to exchange data, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 1,597.35 crore on a net basis on Wednesday.
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