India’s crude oil imports from Russia fell to around 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first three weeks of January, down from 1.21 million bpd in December 2025 and over 2 million bpd at mid-2025, data from analytics firm Kpler shows.
The decline reflects heightened compliance risks following fresh US sanctions on Rosneft, Lukoil and their subsidiaries, which took effect on November 21. Refiners including Reliance Industries, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), HPCL-Mittal Energy, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals (MRPL) temporarily halted Russian imports. Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy continues to rely heavily on Russian crude after EU sanctions restricted alternative sources.
“India’s crude buying in January 2026 shows a clear shift toward lower-risk and more reliable supply, with Middle East barrels rising while Russian crude flows remain present but more selective and compliance-driven,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modelling, Kpler.
Imports from Iraq rose to 9,04,000 bpd, nearly matching Russian volumes, while Saudi Arabia supplied 9,24,000 bpd in January, up from 7,10,000 bpd in December and lows of 5,39,000 bpd in April 2025.
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Analysts say the shift reflects a preference for supply reliability and operational stability, even as refinery economics continue to favour Russian crude.
“India will likely keep buying Russian crude in early 2026, but at a slightly lower level than the record highs seen in 2023-2025. The pullback looks more like a short-term disruption from compliance issues rather than India moving away from Russia completely,” Ritolia said.
Urals crude remains competitively priced, trading USD 5-7 per barrel below Oman/Dubai grades on a delivered basis to India, compared with USD 2-4 per barrel before November 2025. The discount supports refinery margins where compliance risks can be managed. Indian refiners such as Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) are buying Russian crude from non-sanctioned entities, with Reliance expected to resume selective purchases soon.
The overall rebalancing of India’s crude slate highlights a near-term decline in Russian imports, accompanied by increased reliance on traditional Middle Eastern suppliers to ensure smoother cargo execution, predictable supply chains, and operational flexibility.
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