India's crude oil import landscape is undergoing a measured rebalancing, with Middle Eastern suppliers, particularly Saudi Arabia, reclaiming market share amid easing Russian volumes influenced by international sanctions and compliance constraints, according to recent shipping data and expert analysis.
In the first 18 days of February, India's total crude imports averaged 4.85 million barrels per day (bpd), marking an 8 per cent decline from January's 5.25 million bpd. This downturn primarily stems from reduced flows from Russia, following fresh US sanctions on key Russian exporters and the implementation of the European Union's 18th sanctions package last month.
Ship-tracking data reveals Russian shipments to India fell from 1.28 million bpd in December 2025 to 1.22 million bpd in January, further dipping to approximately 1.09 million bpd in early February, a 10 per cent month-on-month reduction. Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modelling at Kpler, a global commodity intelligence firm, estimates February's Russian crude imports at 1.0-1.2 million bpd, potentially easing to 800,000-1.0 million bpd in March.
Since the Ukraine conflict erupted in 2022, India capitalised on discounted Russian crude, which at its peak constituted up to 40 per cent of the nation's imports, supplanting Iraq as the primary supplier. However, successive waves of EU and US sanctions have tempered this reliance. Ritolia characterises the current phase as a short-term stabilisation rather than a resurgence to mid-2025 highs, projecting Russia's share in India's crude slate to settle at a lower range in 2026 due to accumulating commercial and policy frictions.
This outlook is underpinned by a pragmatic US-India understanding that permits baseline Russian imports to sustain refinery operations and domestic fuel supplies, while curbing any significant expansion. Near-term fluctuations are anticipated to arise from sanctions risks, shipping bottlenecks, and logistical hurdles, rather than purely economic factors.
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As Russian volumes recede, the Middle East Gulf region is bridging the shortfall. Saudi Arabian shipments are poised to hit 1.0-1.1 million bpd in February, the highest since November 2019, with month-to-date arrivals peaking at around 1.4 million bpd before an expected taper. Consequently, Saudi Arabia emerges as India's leading supplier this month, ahead of Russia and Iraq.
A key focal point is the Vadinar refinery in Gujarat, where Russia's Rosneft holds the largest stake. Post-EU sanctions targeting its Moscow links, the facility now depends exclusively on Russian crude.
Ritolia notes that India can maintain essential volumes without materially escalating purchases, aligning with the evolving US-India trade dynamics, including a recently finalised deal. Meanwhile, diversification efforts include incremental Venezuelan barrels, though these remain marginal due to production constraints, logistics, and compliance issues.
From a market perspective, fully substituting Russian grades, prized for their medium-sour quality, reliability, and discounts, poses challenges for India's complex refineries optimised for sour crude processing. Ritolia warns that reducing Russian intake could elevate overall crude costs by USD 2-3 per barrel, partially offset by cheaper Venezuelan supplies.
As the month progresses, volumes from Saudi Arabia and Iraq are expected to align around 1.0-1.1 million bpd, still representing multi-year highs. This shift underscores India's strategic pivot towards a more diversified, geopolitically resilient crude slate, balancing economic imperatives with international alliances.
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