India is poised to transition into an upper-middle income country by 2030 and is expected to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028, according to a report released by SBI Research on Monday.
The World Bank classifies countries into income groups based on per capita Gross National Income (GNI) in US dollars. India currently remains in the lower-middle income category but is projected to cross the upper-middle income threshold within the next four years, joining China and Indonesia at current classifications.
Tracing India’s income trajectory, the report noted that the country took nearly six decades to move from low-income status to lower-middle income in 2007, with per capita GNI rising from USD 90 in 1962 to USD 910. Since then, the pace has accelerated significantly.
India reached the USD 1 trillion economy mark after 60 years of Independence, added another trillion in seven years by 2014, crossed USD 3 trillion in 2021 and touched USD 4 trillion in 2025. The economy is expected to reach USD 5 trillion within two years.
Also read: IMF predicts India’s growth slowing to 6.4% in FY27
On income levels, the report said India achieved USD 1,000 per capita income in 2009, USD 2,000 by 2019 and USD 3,000 by 2026.
“India is set to touch USD 4,000 per capita in another 4 years in 2030 to transition to an upper-middle income country and join China and Indonesia at current classification,” the report said.
The analysis highlighted India’s improved growth performance globally, with its percentile rank in cross-country real GDP growth rising from the 92nd to the
95th percentile over the past decade.
Looking ahead to the government’s Viksit Bharat vision for 2047, the report said India would need a per capita GNI growth rate of 7.5 per cent annually to reach the current high-income threshold of USD 13,936.
“This seems achievable as India’s per capita GNI has grown by a CAGR of 8.3 per cent during the last 23 years (2001–2024),” it said, while cautioning that the threshold would rise over time.
SBI Research said India could become a USD 10 trillion economy by 2035–36 and noted that the country is expected to overtake Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028.
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