Equity markets opened on a steady note on Monday, the final trading day of June, with investor sentiment buoyed by an improving global outlook and cautious optimism around India–US trade negotiations.
The NSE Nifty 50 rose marginally by 23.85 points to open at 25,661.65, while the BSE Sensex slipped 31.57 points to begin at 84,027.33. The mood remained largely positive despite the flat start, with analysts attributing the stability to receding geopolitical tensions, advances in global trade discussions, and favourable cues from the United States.
Prominent banking and market expert, Ajay Bagga, noted, “Receding geopolitical clouds and tailwinds from trade deals as well as progress on Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill in the US Senate are setting up a risk-on rally in global markets.”
Markets found further support in expectations that OPEC+ would raise oil production, helping keep crude prices subdued. Additionally, a weakening dollar is encouraging capital inflows into emerging markets, including India.
In the US, traders have begun pricing in a high likelihood of interest rate cuts later this year. The Overnight Index Swap (OIS) curve now reflects a 90 per cent chance of a cut in September, followed by a probable second cut before year-end. Meanwhile, recent US Supreme Court rulings curbing the authority of lower courts to stall White House policy actions have also lifted investor mood.
The July 9 tariff deadline looms large, but according to Bagga, markets are largely confident of a breakthrough. “Of course, the July 9th tariff deadline looms large, but markets are factoring in rough and ready trade deals with over 12 major partners before that and understandings with most countries on the basis of a universal 10 per cent tariff and sectoral tariffs,” he said.
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The Indian trade delegation, currently in Washington, has reportedly extended its stay to finalise the draft contours of a potential deal, further reinforcing market expectations of progress.
Taking cues from fresh record highs in US indices — particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 — Asian equities witnessed upward movement in early trading, lending strength to Indian benchmarks.
In broader indices, the Nifty 100 gained a marginal 0.05 per cent. The Nifty Midcap 100 advanced 0.47 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 climbed 0.57 per cent. Among sectoral indices, Nifty PSU Bank led gains with an increase of over 1 per cent, followed by Media, Metals and Consumer Durables. Nifty IT recorded modest gains of 0.04 per cent.
Market strategist Sunil Gurjar of Alphamojo Financial Services said, “Nifty’s recent breakout from a 31-day narrow consolidation phase, observed on Thursday’s monthly expiry, has led market bulls to project a new all-time high in the near term.”
He further added that this bullish sentiment was being underpinned by “ongoing FII purchases, an encouraging global macroeconomic backdrop, an 11 per cent weekly plummet in crude oil prices, and July’s established pattern of bullish seasonality.”
While volatility may persist around key global events, market watchers believe that a favourable resolution to trade negotiations and steady macro indicators could set the stage for sustained upward momentum in the Indian bourses through July.
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