As traders keep a close watch on the US macroeconomic data figures, global trade negotiations, and US Federal Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, gold prices are unlikely to fluctuate, say analysts.
Besides global PMI data from major economies, including the US, UK and Eurozone, investors will also track the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision for cues on the bullion price trajectory, they said.
“Gold prices are seen consolidating in a range over the past couple of weeks amid a lack of fresh triggers and recovery in the US Dollar in the given period,” said Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services, adding that downside in bullion looks limited as focus remains on the trade negotiations between the US and its trading partners, such as India and China.
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With the August 1 deadline for closing trade deals with the US coming closer, uncertainty around trade talks is likely to support gold’s safe-haven demand, Mer said.
Meanwhile, domestic festive demand from August to October is also expected to further aid prices.
Last week, the precious metal futures for August delivery rose ₹200 or 0.2 per cent on the Multi Commodity Exchange.
Gold has rallied by about 2 per cent over the past 10 days in the overseas markets, moving to around USD 3,350 per ounce.
The positive momentum in gold has been driven by the US President Donald Trump’s tariff actions on BRICS nations and possible duties on the EU, increasing investor demand for safe-haven assets, traders say.
Jateen Trivedi, Analyst at LKP Securities, said, “US Dollar's strength last week kept gains in gold limited, rupee weakness is likely to cushion downside pressure in the domestic markets. Overall, gold is likely to remain volatile in the near term".
NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity & CRM at Ventura, predicts gains of about 4-8 per cent for gold in the second half of this year.
“If catalysts such as weaker US dollar, geopolitical risks, robust investor demand, and continued central bank purchases materialise, gold could gain another 4-8 per cent in the second half after a strong 26 per cent rise in the first half of 2025,” he said.
Last week, silver futures for September delivery hit a record high of ₹1,15,136 per kilogram on the MCX.
“Silver is maturing from the 'poor man's gold' to a strategic metal for smart investors. With supply deficits in the world deepening and demand from EVs, solar, and electronics increasing, fundamentals are in place for a major rally,” opined Sandip Raichura, CEO of Retail Broking and Distribution & Director, PL Capital – Prabhudas Lilladher.
"The gold-to-silver ratio of around 90X indicates space for dramatic catch-up. A weakening dollar, persistent inflation, and surging ETF flows are supporting silver's attractiveness," he said.
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