Rising imports and weak export demand has led to a five-year slump in domestic steel prices, as per market data.
Steel prices traded in the range of ₹47,000-₹48,000 per tonne, the data from research firm, BigMint, revealed.
The last time prices were at such levels was in 2020, when HRC was trading at ₹46,000-per-tonne levels and rebar at ₹45,000-per-tonne, amid the pandemic slowdown.
Hot rolled coil (HRC) prices are hovering around ₹47,150 per tonne, while re-bar (TMT) is quoted in the range of ₹46,500-47,000 per tonne in the wholesale market.
Amongst the multiple reasons for the current decline in prices, rising imports of steel, lower exports, and an oversupply in the global market are emerging as the top causes.
The oversupply globally is being attributed to aggressive export pushes from countries like China. Meanwhile, dumping of cheap imports of steel to India is still active, despite concerns raised by domestic players, the Reserve Bank of India, and measures introduced by the government to curb these, including anti-dumping import duty.
Also Read: Govt calls for ‘open house’ discussion on steel imports
Falling prices amid rising imports is a matter of grave concern, as inbound shipments are increasing, prompting the Ministry of Steel to call for an “open house” to discuss issues related to steel imports with industry stakeholders on October 27 in the national capital.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its October Bulletin, also noted that steel imports have seen a surge, largely driven by lower import prices. It called for policy support to boost the competitiveness of domestic steel production.
In September 2025, India imported 0.79 million tonnes (MT) of finished steel, up from 0.69 MT in August, marking the country’s sixth consecutive month as a net steel importer.
Imports from Korea, Russia, and Indonesia increased, while shares of China, Japan, Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan declined compared with September 2024.
During H1, FY26, India remained a net importer, with inbound shipments exceeding exports by 0.47 MT. This is despite a 40 per cent rise in export volumes to 4.43 MT.
Interestingly, while finished steel prices have plunged, raw material costs have not seen a corresponding decline. Iron ore prices remain quite stable at around ₹4,800-5,000 per tonne, which is a one-year low, and coking coal is trading near USD 205 per tonne CFR (cost and freight), a one-month low.
As per BigMint, mill margins are likely to come under pressure in the October-December period, given high input costs and weak realisations.
It added that steel prices are expected to stay subdued in the near term due to high inventories, sluggish demand, and seasonal weakness, although further corrections could trigger production cuts in the coming months.
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