Geopolitical tensions in West Asia, especially developments around the Strait of Hormuz, along with Q4 corporate earnings and crude oil price movements, are expected to be the key drivers shaping sentiment in the stock market during the holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets will remain closed on Friday for Maharashtra Day.
“Markets are likely to stay highly news-driven and volatile, with close attention on US-Iran negotiations, crude oil trends, and global cues. Any stability or decline in oil prices could ease macro pressures and support sentiment, while escalation or disruption in the Strait of Hormuz may trigger volatility and profit booking,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
He added that the ongoing earnings season will act as a major catalyst for stock-specific movement, with investors tracking results, guidance, and sector outlooks to reassess valuations.
The continued tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have kept crude prices elevated, intensifying inflation concerns. Investors are also awaiting the US Federal Reserve policy decision, which is expected to influence global risk appetite.
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“The escalation in West Asia and breakdown of US-Iran talks have added a significant risk premium to global markets. This is directly impacting crude prices, with Brent hovering near USD 107 per barrel,” said Hariprasad K of Livelong Wealth. He noted that for India, high oil prices remain a key macro concern as they affect inflation, currency stability, and corporate margins.
Reliance Industries Ltd recently reported a 12.5 per cent drop in March-quarter profit, impacted by weaker energy earnings despite gains in telecom and retail segments.
“Domestically, industrial production data for March 2026 and forex reserves updates will also be watched. Globally, the US Fed decision, GDP data, and manufacturing PMI will guide sentiment,” said Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmart.
He reiterated that West Asia developments, particularly US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks, remain the biggest macro trigger for crude volatility and inflation concerns.
Key earnings lined up this week include UltraTech Cement, Coal India, and Varun Beverages on April 27; Maruti Suzuki on April 28; Bajaj Finance and Adani Power on April 29; followed by Hindustan Unilever, Adani Ports, Adani Enterprises, and Bajaj Finserv later in the week, Meena added.
Last week, markets ended sharply lower, with the BSE Sensex falling 1,829.33 points (2.33 per cent) and the NSE Nifty declining 455.6 points (1.87 per cent).
“Global cues dominated sentiment, with West Asia tensions and fears of supply disruption keeping crude oil prices elevated,” said Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking.
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