Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency in the northern hilly region of Kerala is no ordinary contest. This is an election that will decide the political course for the Nehru-Gandhi family. The Congress party has fielded its political heir apparent from here. In a high-octane triangular contest, this time, the Congress will contest both BJP and CPI. Till now, this minority-dominated picturesque region has been a Congress bastion, but will the party be able to retain the seat?
This is one of the many seats where the alliance dharma of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive (INDI) Alliance has been compromised, with the alliance partners contesting each other. In the 2019 elections, Wayanad saw a direct fight between the Congress and CPI.
Rahul Gandhi, who contested two seats, here and from Amethi, secured a massive 64.67 per cent of the votes and defeated CPI's PP Suneer by a staggering margin of over 4.3 lakh votes. The CPI was left with the remaining 25.14 per cent votes.
This time, things are bound to be different. Smriti Irani, who defeated Rahul Gandhi in Amethi, has announced her presence as a campaigner here to support the BJP's candidate and state president K Surendran.
A constituency with 1,357,819 voters, it has a large Muslim and Christian population, so it may prove to be a tough contest for the BJP. Wayanad constituency has 32 per cent Muslims, 13 per cent Christians, 9.5 per cent Scheduled Tribes and 3 per cent Scheduled Castes. Majority of them voted for the Congress in the last elections. However, it is expected that many Christians will support CPI Annie Raja.
BJP is contesting the election here more as its strategy to expand in the South than to win. Especially given that there is negligible Hindutva influence here, which in turn has historically favoured the Congress.
Political Landscape
The seven assembly segments that make up Wayanad have varying party dominance. While Kalpetta, Mananthavady, Sulthan Bathery and Wandoor elected Congress-led UDF candidates in 2021, the LDF won in Mananthavady, Thiruvambady and Nilambur.
Key Candidates
Rahul Gandhi has reaffirmed his commitment to Wayanad, calling it his "home". Banking on his charisma and the Congress's formidable machinery, he remains the frontrunner. However, he is bound to face the heat from an aggressive opposition and some anti-incumbency on account of the repeated long absences and local issues like man-animal conflicts that have sparked some resentment.
The BJP has high hopes from its firebrand state president, K Surendran, who is expected to receive solid campaign support from Smriti Irani, the giant slayer who defeated Rahul in Amethi 2019. The BJP is leaving no stone unturned, with Surendran's rhetoric and Irani's experience of taking on Rahul potentially making inroads into the Congress's vote share.
For the CPI, Annie Raja, a former General Secretary of the National Federation of Indian Women, is a formidable candidate capable of consolidating the party's traditional left-leaning support base. She can also garner many votes cutting across religious lines.
The CPI benefited from anti-Congress sentiments in 2019, securing over 25 per cent of votes. Annie Raja's candidature and the party's organisational strength make it a potent force that could attract minority voters disillusioned with the Congress. Traditionally, the CPI is a strong force in Kerala, and one cannot rule out the possibility of its emerging as the dark horse, attracting a section of minority votes disillusioned with the Congress's performance.
Besides, Annie Raja's reputation as a firebrand leader could catalyse a shift in the Left's favour among a segment of Muslim and Christian voters.
At the same time, the minority voters apprehensive of BJP's Hindutva leanings may consolidate behind Gandhi. While the Congress remains the frontrunner, the entry of Surendran and Raja has added an intriguing dimension to the battle for Wayanad.
Further, Rahul Gandhi's appeal, the Congress machinery's efforts and the lack of a strong BJP-RSS structure locally could help the party retain Wayanad, albeit with a reduced margin compared to 2019's near-sweep.
Victory in Wayanad became very important for Rahul Gandhi as it could bolster his stature as a pan-India opposition voice. In contrast, a narrow win could raise doubts over his appeal beyond traditional pockets. Wayanad is thus a litmus test for Rahul Gandhi's popularity and the Congress's ability to withstand the BJP's onslaught.
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