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News Arena India Editor-in-Chief Naveen S Garewal analyses the reasons for BJP’s triumph over Congress in a direct BJP versus Congress contest.

 

By winning a clear majority, the electorate has revealed that the divide between Jat and non-Jat communities runs deeper than previously thought. This outcome has relegated other election issues, including concerns about soldiers, farmers, and athletes, to the background.

 

The absence of Kumari Selja, a prominent Dalit leader, from the Congress campaign has dealt a significant blow to the party. Reports suggest that, following a rebuff from the Bhupinder Singh Hooda faction, Selja instructed her supporters to vote as they saw fit. This move further fragmented the Congress vote, exacerbating the perceived slight against Dalits by the Jat community.

 

The Congress's strategy of relying solely on Bhupinder Singh Hooda, undoubtedly the party's most prominent leader in Haryana, backfired due to insufficient support from other state politicians. Moreover, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), despite being part of the INDIA alliance, contested against its partner, further splitting the Congress vote and causing a substantial setback.

 

The BJP's decision to replace Manohar Lal Khattar as Chief Minister six months before the assembly polls, installing Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC, in his place, has proven to be a masterstroke. This move effectively countered anti-incumbency sentiments while simultaneously consolidating Dalit support in Haryana.

 

Prime Minister Modi's speeches during the election campaign, in which he portrayed the Congress as anti-Dalit, appear to have swayed Dalit voters towards the BJP. The ruling party's campaign labelling Congress as a "Kharchi, Parchi ki Sarkar" (corrupt government) also resonated with the electorate, working against the opposition.

 

Haryana has a long-standing tradition of aligning with the party or alliance in power at the centre. Electoral records from the past three decades consistently demonstrate this trend. Despite this historical pattern, the BJP initially appeared to be on the defensive.

 

The Congress had won five of the ten parliamentary seats in Haryana earlier this year and was hopeful of improving upon this performance. The party assumed that the factors influencing assembly elections would differ significantly from those at play during parliamentary polls, potentially working in their favour.

 

The Congress heavily depends on support from Jat and farmer communities. Bhupinder Singh Hooda remains the most popular Jat leader in the state and has made significant inroads into strongholds traditionally held by the Indian National Lok Dal of the 'Devi Lal family', which has seen its influence wane considerably in these elections.

 

The Congress faced its perennial problem of factionalism in Haryana, with multiple aspirants vying for the Chief Minister's position. This internal competition ultimately led to a 'fratricidal' conflict, with Kumari Selja's absence from polling sending a clear message to Dalit voters to vote as they wished.

 

The BJP benefited from its decade-long tenure in power, effectively consolidating non-Jat voters in its favour. Simultaneously, the party successfully brought influential Jat leaders into its fold, including members of former Chief Minister Bansi Lal's family. Kiran Choudhary, Bansi Lal's daughter-in-law, recently resigned from the Congress to join the BJP.

 

The BJP's enduring appeal was evident in the parliamentary elections, where it managed to retain a 46.11% vote share compared to the Congress's 47.61%, despite having been in power for ten years.

 

Kumari Selja, considering herself a strong contender for the Chief Minister's position, is expected to be in the running due to her seniority, gender, and Dalit background. However, the party high command signalled clear support for Hooda.

 

Initially, while the leadership question remained open, the Congress's prospects in Haryana seemed promising. However, the distribution of tickets revealed a heavy bias towards Hooda, who secured candidates in 72 out of 90 assembly segments. This move indicated the party's exclusive reliance on Hooda, which proved to be a significant miscalculation in a state where caste plays a crucial role in politics.

 

By effectively handing control of the entire state to Hooda and making the Chief Ministerial choice apparent, the Congress alienated other potential leaders like Selja and Randeep Surjewala.

 

An offensive caste-based remark made against Kumari Selja by a Congress worker during a party event not only personally offended her but also led to widespread resentment among the Dalit community. Although Bhupinder Singh Hooda attempted to mitigate the damage by declaring Selja as akin to a sister, the harm had already been done.

 

In a state like Haryana, where caste polarisation significantly influences elections, sidelining Selja proved costly for Congress. In hindsight, the party should have kept the question of Chief Ministership open until after the elections. By making their choice obvious, the high command took a substantial risk that ultimately did not pay off.

 

The BJP's victory in Haryana for a third consecutive term underscores the complexities of state politics and the importance of strategic decision-making in electoral campaigns. The Congress's overreliance on a single leader, coupled with internal factionalism and the alienation of key communities, particularly Dalits, played a significant role in their defeat. As Haryana's political landscape continues to evolve, both parties will need to reassess their strategies to address the diverse needs and aspirations of the state's electorate.