A recent study warns of a potential plunge in labor productivity to as low as 40 percent by the end of the century in countries such as India and Pakistan due to climate change.
The research, published in the journal Global Change Biology, foresees a significant threat to global food production as a consequence.
The study, led by Professor Gerald Nelson from the University of Illinois, suggests that countries in Southeast and South Asia, West and Central Africa, and northern South America could witness a reduction in physical work capacity to 70 percent.
Climate change is expected to impact agricultural workers who play a crucial role in planting, tilling, and harvesting, affecting their ability to work efficiently due to increased heat exposure.
"Assessments consistently conclude that climate change will reduce crop yields, making food security challenges worse," Professor Nelson spotlighted.
He highlighted that the study goes beyond crops and livestock, addressing the plight of agricultural workers who will be adversely affected by heat stress, limiting their ability to carry out fieldwork.
The research employed computational models developed by Loughborough University, United Kingdom, based on data from over 700 heat stress trials.
These trials observed individuals working in diverse temperatures, humidities, and weather conditions, providing insights into physical work capacity under different climate change scenarios.
The benchmark for the study was the maximum work capacity achievable by individuals in a cool climate, representing 100 percent physical work capacity.
Reductions in physical work capacity pose challenges as workers are limited in their abilities, potentially requiring additional labor or, in the absence of additional workers, leading to reduced crop sizes. The study reveals that even in the "recent past" (1991–2010) climate conditions, half of the world's cropland farmers were estimated to be working below 86 percent capacity.
Considering potential adaptations to mitigate climate change's impact on agricultural workers, the study suggests switching to night-time or shaded work to reduce direct solar radiation.
This adaptation was found to improve worker productivity by 5–10 percent. Another proposed solution is to increase the global use of mechanical machinery and equipment, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where agricultural practices rely heavily on strenuous physical labor.
The findings underscore the urgency of addressing climate change's far-reaching consequences beyond ecological concerns, emphasizing the importance of safeguarding the livelihoods of those engaged in critical sectors like agriculture.
The study serves as a stark reminder of the intricate links between climate change, food security, and the well-being of the global workforce, urging concerted efforts to address these pressing issues.
Another recent study led by the International Labor Organization warns of severe workday labor losses due to global warming, particularly impacting countries in southwest Asia, South Asia, and Africa. India faces a staggering loss of 101 billion work hours annually, along with other nations like Pakistan, China, and Indonesia.
Additionally, 14 less populated countries, including Bangladesh, Bahrain, and Ghana, may experience disproportionately higher per-capita losses. Outdoor occupations, including agriculture and construction, are expected to face challenges during peak noon hours in the summer.
The ILO predicts a global productivity loss of 80 million full-time jobs by 2030 due to increased heat stress.
This alarming revelation underscores the critical need for urgent and concerted efforts to combat climate change, ensuring the protection of the global workforce and sustaining productivity.
Immediate actions and global cooperation are imperative to mitigate the adverse effects of rising temperatures on various sectors, safeguarding economies and livelihoods worldwide.
Rising temperatures in India, predicted to surpass 39°C, pose multifaceted challenges to the population. Beyond the immediate threat to life, such extreme temperatures significantly impact labor productivity.
Temperatures exceeding 24–26°C result in reduced efficiency, while 33–34°C can cause a 50% loss in work capacity. Prolonged exposure can lead to fatal outcomes, with heatstroke a looming danger.
Vulnerability varies among worker groups, perpetuating social inequalities. The International Labor Organization anticipates a global loss of over 2% in working hours annually by 2030 due to rising temperatures.
This projection underscores the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to mitigate climate change, safeguard public health, and sustain economic productivity in the face of escalating temperatures.
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