With less than three weeks to go for Bangladesh’s national parliamentary elections scheduled on February 12, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is viewed as a frontrunner and assessments suggest that Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) could emerge as a strong contender.
According to an internal assessment accessed by intelligence agencies in Dhaka, JeI expects to secure outright victories in at least 76 constituencies, while considering contests in another 85 seats to be evenly poised. The Islamist party believes its organisational strength and targeted campaigning could allow it to challenge the BNP across a significant portion of the 300-member parliament.
Jamaat’s rise follows the August 2024 regime change that removed the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government and installed an interim administration under Mohammad Yunus. Since then, Jamaat’s political fortunes have improved, with the party expanding its grassroots network.
The BNP, meanwhile, has been energised by the return of its Acting Chairperson, Tarique Rahman, on December 25, 2025, after nearly 18 years in exile in the UK. Rahman began intensive campaigning in northern districts from January 22, following the completion of nomination scrutiny by the Election Commission.
BNP leaders are concerned about Jamaat’s growing momentum, particularly as the party is presently dealing with more than 90 rebel candidates who could split votes in key constituencies.
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According to intelligence agencies, Jamaat plans to contest the BNP directly in at least 172 constituencies. “Since October 2024, the party has focused resources on 162 priority seats, reallocating vote banks from weaker constituencies to strengthen prospects in targeted areas. Particular emphasis has been placed on 20 Dhaka constituencies, where Jamaat supporters and cadres were encouraged over several years to relocate and establish a strong presence,” said an intelligence wing officer.
Jamaat has also reportedly prepared around 1.5 million expatriate supporters to vote via postal ballots, while encouraging domestic supporters to do the same. In Dhaka, the party’s Women’s Wing and Islami Chhatri Sangstha are said to be deploying “special tactics,” backed by extensive door-to-door surveys.
“Jamaat activists have been collecting voters’ National ID details and mobile numbers, along with information on mobile banking platforms such as bKash, Nagad, and Rocket, raising concerns over inducements ahead of polling day. The party is also believed to have allocated between BDT 50-100 crore for campaigning across 162–188 priority seats, including financial support to allied groups such as the National Citizen Party (NCP),” said the intelligence establishment official.
Security arrangements have also drawn scrutiny. Ansar-VDP personnel are expected to form the largest security presence at polling centres, with reports suggesting Jamaat’s aim to position at least 15 JeI-Shibir activists per centre within security roles. There are also claims of ideological sympathy for Jamaat among sections of district-level administration and law enforcement.
On polling day, Jamaat-Shibir cadres are expected to arrive early at booths immediately after Fajr prayers to establish dominance during the initial voting hours. The party’s recent victories in student union elections at Dhaka University and five other public universities are seen as part of a broader micro-level strategy that could be replicated nationwide.
India is closely monitoring developments in its eastern front. New Delhi has signalled a preference for a BNP-led government, viewing it as a lower risk than a Jamaat-influenced administration. Diplomatic gestures — including S. Jaishankar’s Dhaka visit for Khaleda Zia’s funeral, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s messages to Tarique Rahman upon his assumption of BNP leadership — indicate India’s willingness to reset ties with the BNP.
As Bangladesh heads toward a highly polarised election, the convergence of intense competition, ideological fault lines, and regional geopolitical interests suggests that February 12 could mark a decisive – and potentially destabilising – moment for both Dhaka and New Delhi.
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