Canadian authorities, including the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, have been gearing up for a potential rise in asylum-seekers from the United States.
Sharing the contingency strategy, Sergeant Charles Poirier of the RCMP explained that plans have been in the works for several months, especially in light of Donald Trump's recent election victory and his pledge to carry out widespread deportations.
Canada has already been dealing with historically high numbers of refugee claims and is actively working to manage immigration levels. According to Poirier, planning began months ago as officials anticipated the impact of Trump’s policies. “If he comes into power, which he will in a few months, there’s a risk of increased illegal and irregular migration into Quebec and Canada," he said in a recent interview.
A worst-case scenario, Poirier explained, would involve a sharp increase in border crossings, possibly hundreds per day. This could overwhelm officers, who would need to cover vast areas to monitor and intercept border crossings.
In recent years, thousands of asylum-seekers have crossed into Canada through informal routes like Roxham Road near the Quebec-New York border to apply for refugee status. However, following an extended bilateral agreement between Canada and the U.S., asylum-seekers attempting to cross anywhere along the 4,000-mile border are now sent back unless they meet specific exemptions.
"The border is under close watch," Poirier noted, adding that Canadian authorities were on high alert before the election and are likely to stay vigilant for weeks to come.
Data from Canada’s Immigration and Refugee Board reveals the country is already struggling with record levels of refugee claimants. In July alone, nearly 20,000 people submitted claims, a record number attributed to global displacement. Although the number dropped to around 16,400 by September, it remains historically high, with over 250,000 claims currently pending.
Despite efforts to reduce permanent and temporary immigration numbers, Canada has limited control over how many individuals seek asylum. The FCJ Refugee Centre in Toronto already receives numerous new arrivals weekly. Its founder, Loly Rico, emphasised that Trump's win would likely drive more people to cross into Canada. "We’re going to see an uptick in border crossings as people look for support in cities," she said, voicing concerns about safety as winter approaches. In 2022, a family of four tragically died from exposure near Emerson, Manitoba, attempting a similar crossing.
With Canada tightening border controls, some migrants now rely on smugglers to navigate alternative routes. Rico explained that many people once handled the journey independently but now often pay more for assistance to reach Canada via land or air.
Daoud, another advocate, urged Canada to bolster its asylum infrastructure to manage a possible influx more effectively. "Unless there’s a policy shift in how this issue is handled, we’ll see more of the same challenges. Preparation is crucial to prevent another cycle of politicisation around asylum,” he noted.
While Immigration Minister Marc Miller stated that the government has plans to handle a possible increase in asylum-seekers, details remain undisclosed. In a statement, Miller's office reaffirmed that any approach taken would prioritise Canada’s best interests and the well-being of those residing within its borders.
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