China’s population continued to decline for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, with new official figures showing births fell to their lowest rate since the 1949 Communist revolution, underscoring the country’s deepening demographic challenge.
According to population data released on Monday, China’s total population stood at 1.404 billion in 2025, a fall of around three million from the previous year. The number of newborns dropped to 7.92 million, a decline of 1.62 million or 17 per cent, erasing a brief uptick recorded in 2024.
Measured per capita, the birth rate fell to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, the lowest level since records began after the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Comparable data from before that period are unavailable.
China lost its status as the world’s most populous country in 2023, when it was overtaken by India. The latest figures highlight mounting demographic pressures as the country grapples with what analysts often describe as a society “getting old before it gets rich”.
Despite a decade of policy reversals aimed at encouraging families to have more children, the decline has continued. Births fell for seven consecutive years through 2023, and the renewed drop in 2025 suggests the trend remains entrenched.
Many families cite the high cost of raising children in an intensely competitive society, a burden compounded by an economic slowdown that has squeezed household incomes. Cultural factors may also have played a role, as 2025 was the Year of the Snake, traditionally regarded as an unfavourable year for childbirth under the Chinese zodiac.
Also read: China’s population falls below expectations, poses economic challenges
China’s fertility rate, the average number of children a woman is expected to have, is estimated by experts to be around one, well below the 2.1 required to maintain population stability. The government last officially published the figure in 2020, when it stood at 1.3.
For decades, Beijing enforced a strict one-child policy, producing more than two generations of only children. The limit was raised to two children in 2015, and further expanded to three in 2021, as demographic concerns intensified.
The push to reverse the decline is closely tied to economic anxieties. China now has 323 million people aged over 60, accounting for 23 per cent of the population, while the working-age population continues to shrink.
As China seeks to transition from labour-intensive industries to a consumer-driven, high-tech economy, officials fear a shrinking workforce could slow growth. Policy responses have included cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($500) per child, announced last July.
At the same time, authorities have sought to reshape behaviour through taxation changes. Contraceptives, including condoms, were removed from a value-added tax exemption list in 2025 and are now subject to a 13 per cent tax. In contrast, kindergartens, day-care centres and matchmaking services have been added to tax-exempt categories to promote child-rearing.
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