macron-faces-challenge-as-le-pen-s-rn-leads-french-polls

France's far-right National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, emerged victorious in the first round of the country's parliamentary election, according to exit polls. The RN secured approximately 34% of the vote, surpassing its leftist and centrist competitors, including President Emmanuel Macron's Together alliance, which garnered between 20.5% and 23%. The New Popular Front (NFP), a coalition of left-wing parties, followed closely with around 29% of the vote, as indicated by multiple exit polls from Ipsos, Ifop, OpinionWay, and Elabe.

 

Despite the RN's lead, the final outcome hinges on the upcoming run-off elections and the subsequent political negotiations. Traditionally, French politics has seen centre-right and centre-left parties forming alliances to prevent the RN from gaining power—a strategy known as the "republican front." However, the effectiveness of this approach is uncertain this time around.

 

In French parliamentary elections, if no candidate secures over 50% of the vote in the first round, the top two contenders proceed to a run-off. Additionally, candidates with at least 12.5% of registered voters can also qualify for the second round. This election is likely to witness a record number of three-way run-offs, a scenario that typically benefits the RN more than simpler two-way contests.

 

Following the first round, political manoeuvring commenced immediately. President Macron called upon voters to support candidates aligned with republican and democratic values, implicitly excluding those from the RN and the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party. Meanwhile, LFI leader Jean-Luc Melenchon announced that NFP would withdraw third-placed candidates to consolidate votes against the RN.

 

Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old president of RN, expressed readiness to become prime minister if his party secures an outright majority. However, both Macron and NFP have ruled out forming alliances with the RN, setting the stage for potential "cohabitation" scenarios—a situation where the president and prime minister come from opposing parties.

 

The exit polls suggested RN might win the most seats in the National Assembly, with one pollster, Elabe, even projecting a potential absolute majority of 289 seats in the run-off. However, projections based on first-round results can be notoriously inaccurate.

 

Voter turnout was notably high compared to previous parliamentary elections, reflecting intense political engagement following Macron's decision to call for early parliamentary elections after RN's success in the recent European Parliament elections. This move has injected significant uncertainty into French politics and triggered reactions across Europe, including financial market reactions.

 

Once considered a political outcast, RN now stands closer to power than ever before. Marine Le Pen's efforts to rebrand the party, shifting focus from racism and antisemitism to economic issues and immigration concerns, seem to have resonated with voters disillusioned with Macron's policies and economic challenges.

 

As of 1500 GMT, voter turnout was nearly 60%, a substantial increase from the previous parliamentary election's 39.42%, marking the highest comparable turnout since the 1986 legislative vote, according to Ipsos France's research director, Mathieu Gallard.