Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is preparing for a leadership election on Friday to decide the successor to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. This decision is crucial as the new LDP leader will also become Japan’s next Prime Minister, given the party's majority in the parliament.
The contest, featuring nine candidates, is expected to be highly competitive, with no single candidate currently expected to secure a clear majority in the initial round of voting.
In this election, 736 votes will be cast in total, with 368 coming from LDP lawmakers and another 368 from the party's rank-and-file members. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the top two contenders will advance to a runoff later in the day.
The balance of power in the second round shifts slightly, as grassroots votes are reduced to one per each of the LDP’s 47 prefectural chapters. This arrangement gives more sway to the lawmakers.
This leadership race marks the first since 2021, drawing a record nine contenders. Each candidate has vowed to renew the party’s direction and restore public confidence.
The top names in the race include former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is 67 years old; the youngest candidate, Shinjiro Koizumi, 43; and Sanae Takaichi, 63, who currently serves as Economic Security Minister. According to recent reports from Kyodo News, none of the three is expected to win outright in the first round of voting.
Shigeru Ishiba is well-known for his expertise in defense policy and his efforts toward regional revitalization. He has strong support from local party members but struggles to gain backing from party lawmakers. This is his fifth attempt to lead the LDP, following four unsuccessful bids.
Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, is running for the party’s top post for the first time. While some see him as a refreshing choice for the party, others have raised concerns over his relative lack of experience in leadership roles.
Sanae Takaichi, backed by the conservative wing of the party closely aligned with the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is positioning herself to make history as Japan’s first female Prime Minister. This is her second bid for LDP leadership, and her strong stance on security has garnered significant support from right-wing factions within the party.
Other notable candidates include former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, former Health Minister Katsunobu Kato, Digital Minister Taro Kono, and LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi.
The leadership race comes at a time when voter confidence in the LDP has been affected by a slush fund scandal that has damaged the party’s image. The new leader will have the challenge of restoring the party’s credibility while addressing Japan’s fragile economic recovery, which has been impacted by rising costs. Furthermore, the new Prime Minister will face significant security challenges, particularly concerning China, North Korea, and Russia.
There is speculation that the incoming Prime Minister might call for a snap election before the end of the year. Several of the leading candidates, including Koizumi, Ishiba, and Takaichi, have expressed their openness to dissolving the House of Representatives for a snap election if necessary.
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