The centrist D66 party has narrowly won the Dutch general election, according to projections suggesting that Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) has failed to close the slim vote gap.
The result positions D66 leader Rob Jetten to become the youngest Prime Minister of the European Union’s fifth-largest economy, though extended coalition negotiations are expected before a new government is formed.
According to projections, Jetten holds a slender lead of 15,155 votes over Wilders, with only one constituency and overseas postal ballots yet to be counted. The remaining postal votes, being tallied in The Hague, are not expected to be fully announced until Monday evening.
Historically, overseas voters have favoured centrist and left-leaning parties. In the 2023 election, D66 led PVV by around 3,000 postal votes.
On Tuesday, senior lawmakers are expected to meet in parliament to appoint a “scout” — a negotiator tasked with exploring potential coalition options. Traditionally, the leader of the largest party nominates the scout and takes charge of the coalition-building process, which could extend for several months.
Caretaker Prime Minister Dick Schoof will continue in his role until a new government takes office. “I expect I will still be PM at Christmas,” Schoof remarked earlier on Friday.
All major political parties have ruled out collaborating with Wilders, whose PVV previously withdrew from the last coalition over disagreements on immigration policy. If confirmed as the election winner, Jetten will need to forge a coalition commanding at least 76 seats in the 150-member parliament.
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His most likely path appears to be a “grand alliance” comprising the centre-right Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) with 18 seats, the liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) with 22, and the left-wing Green/Labour bloc with 20. D66 currently holds 26 seats.
However, doubts persist about whether VVD and Green/Labour can collaborate. VVD leader Dilan Yesilgoz had stated before the election that cooperation with Green/Labour “would not work,” expressing a preference for a centre-right alignment.
The Green/Labour bloc is scheduled to elect a new leader on Monday following the resignation of former EU Vice-President Frans Timmermans, a change that could help ease coalition discussions.
While Wilders’ support has waned, other far-right parties have gained ground. The nationalist Forum for Democracy (FvD), which advocates withdrawing from the EU’s Schengen free-movement system, more than doubled its representation from three seats to seven. Wilders, however, has ruled out joining forces with FvD.
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