US President Donald Trump sent mixed signals on Monday regarding the trajectory of the war with Iran, initially suggesting the conflict was reaching its conclusion before pivoting to a much more aggressive stance just hours later. Speaking to CBS News, the US President claimed that the joint US-Israeli military campaign was "very far ahead of schedule" and described the operation as "very complete, pretty much." He asserted that Tehran's strategic capabilities had been gutted, noting they now have "no navy, no communications, and no air force.
"However, the tone shifted dramatically during a Republican conference later that evening. Contradicting his earlier optimism, Trump told the audience that while the US had won in many ways, it hadn't "won enough" yet. He vowed that the military pressure would not let up until Iran was "totally and decisively defeated," a sentiment he doubled down on in a characteristically fiery post on Truth Social. Warning Tehran against any attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz — a vital chokepoint through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows — Trump threatened a retaliation "twenty times harder" than anything seen so far, promising that "Death, Fire, and Fury" would reign if the oil supply was severed.
The rhetoric has already drawn a sharp rebuff from Tehran. A spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dismissed Trump's predictions of an early end to the war, stating bluntly that it would be Iran, not Washington, that determines when the fighting stops. The elite force further threatened to ensure that not "one litre of oil" would leave the region if the strikes continued.
Since the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for more than a week now due to brinkmanship, we have seen a dramatic increase in Brent crude prices as they have climbed to over $110 per barrel— the highest prices we have seen since mid-2022. The impact on the world economy has been immense and will continue to be felt for some time to come.
The escalating human toll of the ten-day war is becoming horrific. The UN's Iranian Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani says that US and Israeli military action has claimed over one thousand three hundred and thirty-two Iranian civilian lives and tremendous suffering in Lebanon — already over four hundred dead and nearly seven hundred thousand people displaced from their homes — at the same time that both nations are at a military and diplomatic stalemate, suggesting that the likelihood of a "total" war diminishes with every passing second.
Also read: Oil prices soar after Iran names new supreme leader
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